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2018-07-12 10:25:00

RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000

RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000

PLATTSRussian oil producers may be capable of increasing production by as much as 600,000 b/d within the next nine to 18 months if the country's agreements with OPEC and its partners allow, according to analysts.

Following the decision in June by OPEC and its oil producing partners to boost output by 1 million b/d from levels in May, Russia has pledged to add an additional 200,000 b/d to the market. The return of Russian barrels is a key factor currently weighing on markets.

"I think it is realistic to boost output by up to 600,000 b/d within the first half of 2019 -- but Russian companies will need to drastically intensify drilling to do so," said Mikhail Sheybe, an analyst from Sberbank CIB.

The Energy Information Administration defines spare capacity as the volume of crude that can come on stream within 30 days and be sustained for at least 90 days.

"We estimate that Russia will retain [roughly] 360,000 b/d of swing capacity at the end of 2018, as oil output ramps up by the agreed 200,000 b/d," a recent report by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research said. "We expect Russian oil producers to accumulate additional [roughly] 140,000 b/d spare capacity by the end of 2019, bringing the total figure to 500,000 b/d."

Russia's spare capacity has grown because oil producers continued to prepare major greenfield projects for full-scale development in anticipation of production caps being lifted at some point this year, analysts said. The country can produce more crude if required, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said last month.

His comments came amid concerns that OPEC countries may not be able to cover potential gaps in supply in the fourth quarter, expected as a result of looming US sanctions on Iran, sliding output from Venezuela and the latest slump in Libyan exports. Saudi Arabia and Russia hold the bulk of the world's current spare capacity.

Because Russia has never deliberately reduced its output before, it's uncertain how quickly oil producers will be able to increase production. Key producers estimated they would need on average of between two to four months to restore barrels, while some sources said these forecasts were conservative.

In June, Russia boosted its output by 89,400 b/d to 11.063 million b/d, as oil producers carried out tests to assess how quickly output could be increased.

DRILLING IS KEY

Further production growth will depend on drilling rates, as most of the increase is likely to come from new, rather than closed, low-margin wells.

"Depending on oil prices, companies will be looking at what projects to develop and whether it is economically justified to increase production [further] within a short period of time," said Andrey Polischuk, a Moscow-based analyst from Raiffeisen Bank.

Oil producers may opt to increase production gradually to avoid any potential sharp drops from reservoirs in the future, as they will pursue their own business interests, said Polischuk.

Based on current plans, "greenfields" can add some 221,000-241,000 b/d in production in 2019, Daria Kozlova from Vygon Consulting estimated.

Intensive drilling in recent years has also helped to stabilize production at some major mature projects such as Rosneft's Yuganskneftegaz. The unit's output rose by 8.4% on the year to 1.4 million b/d in June, and it has potential to grow by another 100,000 b/d, said Ronald Smith, director for CEEMEA Oil and Gas at Citi Research.

FUTURE PRODUCTION

Russia's government is more conservative. If the OPEC coalition agreements are maintained, Russia's crude production is likely to average at around 11.045 million b/d this year and grow by nearly 1% to 11.146 million b/d in 2019, Russia's energy and economic development ministries estimated.

Production will peak at around 11.246 million b/d in 2020-2021, and then gradually fall by 100,000 b/d in 2024, according to the latest short-term economic outlook by the economy development ministry.

Official forecasts, however, tend to be too conservative, analysts said.

"Russia can produce 12 million b/d by the end of 2020, based on the huge pipeline of greenfield projects it has," Citi's Smith said.

"Nobody has stopped drilling. Rosneft was increasing drilling even though it visibly, purposely reduced production under the output cut deal, as it was preparing the fields for the full-scale development," he said.

Russian key greenfields to underpin output growth in 2019 and beyond include Rosneft's Yurubcheno-Tohomskoye and the Vankor cluster of fields, Gazprom Neft's Novoport and Prirazlomnoye as well as the Messoyakha and Kuyumba fields the two companies develop jointly.

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Earlier:

 Russia
2018, July, 6, 11:55:00

КОРРЕКТИРОВКА ДО 100%

МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - В ходе телефонного разговора Министр энергетики Российской Федерации Александр Новак и Министр энергетики, промышленности и природных ресурсов Саудовской Аравии Халид аль-Фалих обсудили последние тенденции на мировом рынке нефти. Министры обменялись информацией о планах своих стран по производству нефти для удовлетворения спроса в летний период в свете решений, принятых в последние месяцы на 174-й встречи Конференции ОПЕК и 4-й Министерской встречи стран ОПЕК и не входящих в ОПЕК государств в Вене, направленных на корректировку коллективного уровня снижения добычи нефти со 147 процентов в мае 2018 до 100 процентов, начиная с 1 июля 2018 г., что соответствует увеличению добычи примерно на один миллион баррелей нефти в день.

 Russia
2018, July, 4, 12:40:00

ЦЕНА URALS: $68,83

МИНФИН РОССИИ - Средняя цена нефти марки Urals по итогам января – июня 2018 года составила $ 68,83 за баррель.В 2017 году средняя цена на Urals в январе – июне составила $ 50,30 за баррель.

 Russia
2018, July, 4, 12:20:00

SAUDI ARABIA & RUSSIA: +1 MBD

BLOOMBERG - Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed an agreement between OPEC and its allies, which they say will mean increasing oil production by 1 million barrels a day.

 Russia
2018, July, 2, 12:20:00

РОССИЯ МОЖЕТ ДОБАВИТЬ 200 000

ПРАЙМ - Россия готова нарастить свою добычу нефти более чем на 200 тысяч баррелей в сутки, если это будет нужно для достижения общей цели ОПЕК+ по увеличению добычи в 1 миллион баррелей, сообщил журналистам министр энергетики РФ Александр Новак.

 Russia
2018, June, 18, 14:20:00

ЦЕНА URALS: $ 75,21977

МИНФИН РОССИИ - Средняя цена на нефть Urals за период мониторинга с 15 мая по 14 июня 2018 года составила $ 75,21977 за баррель, или $ 549,1 за тонну. Согласно расчетам Минфина России экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ с 1 июля 2018 года повысится на $ 7,3 и составит $ 139,1 за тонну.

 Russia
2018, June, 15, 11:30:00

RUSSIA - SAUDI ARABIA COOPERATION

ARAB NEWS - Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow Thursday.

 Russia
2018, June, 6, 12:15:00

ROSNEFT CAN ADD 100,000

PLATTS - Russia's largest crude oil producer, Rosneft, is in a position to add 100,000 b/d to production in a few days if the conditions of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal are eased, analysts at Aton said in a research note released following meetings with Rosneft officials.

 

 

Tags: RUSSIA, OIL, PRODUCTION, PRICE

Chronicle:

RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000
2018, August, 17, 11:30:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent, the output of utilities moved down 0.5 percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth, the index for mining declined 0.3 percent. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000
2018, August, 17, 11:25:00

NORWAY'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION: 1.911 MBD

NPD - Preliminary production figures for July 2018 show an average daily production of 1 911 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, which is an increase of 64 000 barrels per day compared to June.

RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000
2018, August, 17, 11:20:00

GAZPROM NEFT NET PROFIT UP TO 49.6%

GAZPROM NEFT - For the first six months of 2018 Gazprom Neft achieved revenue** growth of 24.4% year-on-year, at one trillion, 137.7 billion rubles (RUB1,137,700,000,000). The Company achieved a 49.8% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, to RUB368.2 billion. This performance reflected positive market conditions for oil and oil products, production growth at the Company’s new projects, and effective management initiatives. Net profit attributable to Gazprom Neft PJSC shareholders grew 49.6% year on year, to RUB166.4 billion. Growth in the Company’s operating cash flow, as well as the completion of key infrastructure investments at new upstream projects, delivered positive free cash flow of RUB47.5 billion for 1H 2018.

RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000
2018, August, 15, 11:10:00

OIL PRICE: NEAR $72

REUTERS - Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $72.34 per barrel at 0648 GMT, down by 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $66.81 per barrel.

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