July 2018

IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.

IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.

IMF - Following the severe recession in 2015−16, real GDP grew by 1 percent in 2017. Growth is projected to be 1.8 and 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, driven by a recovery in domestic consumption and investment. Even if federal expenditure remains constant in real terms at its 2016 level, as mandated by a constitutional rule, public debt is expected to rise further and peak in 2023 at above 90 percent of GDP.

PLATTS - China imported 146 million mt of coal and lignite in the first half of 2018, up 9.9% from the previous year and a three-year high, according to preliminary data released Friday by the General Administration of Customs. In June China imported 25.5 million mt of coal, up 17.9% on the year and 14% on the month from 22.3 million mt in May, the data showed.

PLATTS - Russian miner SUEK (Siberian Coal Energy Company) produced 55.6 million mt of coal in the first six months of 2018, which was an increase of 4% on the year, according to a statement from the company late Thursday.

BAKER HUGHES A GE - U.S. Rig Count is up 2 rigs from last week to 1,054, with oil rigs unchanged at 863, gas rigs up 2 to 189, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2. Canada Rig Count is up 15 rigs from last week to 197, with oil rigs up 13 to 139 and gas rigs up 2 to 58.

REUTERS - Brent crude LCOc1 rose $1.23, or 1.7 percent, to $74.63 a barrel by 0544 GMT after slumping 6.9 percent on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 added 46 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $70.84 a barrel, after falling 5 percent the previous session.

OPEC - In 2018, oil demand is expected to grow by 1.65 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, with expectations for total world consumption at 98.85 mb/d. In 2019, the initial projection indicates a global increase of around 1.45 mb/d, with annual average global consumption anticipated to surpass the 100 mb/d threshold. The OECD is once again expected to remain in positive territory, registering a rise of 0.27 mb/d with the bulk of gains originating in OECD America. The non-OECD region is anticipated to lead oil demand growth in 2019 with initial projections indicating an increase of around 1.18 mb/d, most of which is attributed to China and India. Additionally, a steady acceleration in oil demand growth is projected in Latin America and the Middle East.

REUTERS - The Republican president, in Brussels for the NATO summit, took a swipe at Germany for supporting a new pipeline for Russian gas, saying at a pre-summit meeting: “We’re supposed to be guarding against Russia and Germany goes out and pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia.”

PLATTS - OPEC's recent decision with Russia and other allies to boost crude output by a combined 1 million b/d may be insufficient to meet global demand in the months ahead, according to the producer group's own forecast.