UNESSENTIAL SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR

NGW - A new round of political activity to promote the Southern Gas Corridor from the Caspian to Europe has begun. In February, European energy ministers and supplier nation officials met in Baku. In June, first gas entered the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) across Turkey, and the first substantial source of supply for the Southern Corridor, the Shah Deniz II project in Azerbaijan, started producing. Shah Deniz II will ramp up to peak output of 16 bcm/year by 2021-22. Europe will then receive around 10 bcm, no more than 2 per cent of its overall demand, via the Southern Corridor, compared to the 10-20 per cent that had been envisaged in Brussels. While political leaders continue to paint the corridor's prospects in very bright colours, the market dynamics – in the Caspian region itself, in the Caucasus and Turkey, and in Europe – are less promising. Commercial conditions for the Southern Corridor's success have deteriorated as political support for it has grown. Up to 2030, the corridor will most likely remain an insubstantial contributor to Europe's gas balance. At best, there may be sufficient gas for a second string of TANAP, but only at the end of the 2020s. 

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Earlier:

2018, July, 6, 11:35:00 €500 MLN FOR TRANS ADRIATIC PIPELINE EBRD - The EBRD Board of Directors has approved an up to €500 million loan for the construction of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), a priority project of the European Union (EU) and the Energy Community. The 878 kilometre pipeline will start at the Greek/Turkish border, cross Albania and, after passing under the Adriatic Sea, will end in southern Italy. It constitutes the final leg of the Southern Gas Corridor and will transport gas from the Caspian region to Europe.

2017, May, 6, 17:00:00 RUSSIAN GAS CORRIDOR One of the highest priorities in Russia's gas export and marketing strategy is establishing its own southern corridor for gas exports to Europe, in competition with the EU-backed project.

2016, September, 26, 18:40:00 SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR DIFFICULTIES The $45bn complex pipeline project running from Azerbaijan to Italy and consisting of four mega projects – Shah Deniz 2, South Caucasus Pipeline expansion (SCPX), Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (Tanap), and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) – would be delivered and will come in under budget, eventually delivering 16-32bn m³/yr.

2016, June, 22, 18:10:00 AZERBAIJAN NEED $30 BLN Azerbaijan is hoping in the best case for profits in excess of $50bn from the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). State oil company Socar told that even the gloomiest outlook showed that Azerbaijan’s share in the profit of SGC would be at least $30bn over the 25 years' duration of the sales and purchase agreements.

2016, April, 8, 20:55:00 SOUTHERN CORRIDOR FUNDING Last month, the state-owned Southern Gas Corridor Company (SGCC) raised $1bn in a 10-year eurobond at 6.875% yield. However, it met only half of its original plan.

2015, December, 29, 19:35:00 STATOIL SALES 20% “TAP is crucial in the diversification of gas sources in Europe through the development of the Southern Corridor from the Republic of Azerbaijan and potentially other countries,” said Carlo Malacarne, Snam’s chief executive officer.

2015, December, 24, 19:50:00 U.S. WANTS EUROPE I think Russia would be happy if the Southern Corridor did not happen, but I think at this point it's a fait accompli – it will happen. The Shah Deniz project has been approved and a final investment decision has been taken. Work is progressing on it and on the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) that will cross Turkey and go on into Europe. The present issues between Turkey and Russia will only strengthen the resolve for completing the Southern Corridor. The question will be how much the Southern Corridor can expand beyond the currently planned quantities of 10 bcm to Europe and the 6 bcm to Turkey. It is also a question of whether there will be other gas sources that can put gas into that pipeline system.