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2018-09-14 12:40:00

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE

IEA - The price of Brent crude oil fell close to $70/bbl and is now flirting with $80/bbl. Two reasons for the swing are that Venezuela’s production decline continues, and we are approaching 4 November when US sanctions against Iran’s oil exports are implemented. In Venezuela, production fell in August to 1.24 mb/d and, if the recent rate of decline continues, it could be only 1 mb/d at the end of the year. Evidence provided by tanker tracking data suggests that Iran’s exports have already fallen significantly but we must wait to see if the 500 kb/d of reductions seen so far will grow. (See Iran supply tumbles as buyers take heed of US sanctions).

If Venezuelan and Iranian exports do continue to fall, markets could tighten and oil prices could rise without offsetting production increases from elsewhere. Supply from some countries has grown since the Vienna meetings in June: last month Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined saw output increase by 160 kb/d. In Iraq’s case, exports have grown to such an extent that they are greater than Iran’s production, and there is still about 200 kb/d of shut-in capacity in the north of the country due to the ongoing dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government. Based on our August estimates of production, OPEC countries are sitting on about 2.7 mb/d of spare production capacity, 60% of which is in Saudi Arabia. But the point about spare capacity is that, having been idle, it is not clear exactly how much, beyond what is widely thought to be “easy” to bring online, will be available to coincide with further falls in Venezuelan exports and a maximisation of Iranian sanctions. It is not just a question of volume; refiners used to processing Venezuelan or Iranian crude will compete to find similar quality barrels to maintain optimal refinery operations. Alternative supplies of lighter crude might not be ideal for this reason. Even before we factor in any further fall in exports from Venezuela or Iran, record global refinery runs are expected to result in a crude stock draw of 0.5 mb/d in 4Q18. Any draw will be from a basis of relative tightness: in the OECD, stocks at end-July were 50 million barrels below the five-year average.

If we are looking for additional barrels from elsewhere to help compensate for further export declines from Venezuela and Iran the picture is mixed. Brazil was supposed to be one of the big production success stories of 2018, but various problems have stymied growth to the extent that output will rise by only 30 kb/d this year versus a first estimate of 260 kb/d. On the upside, the United States continues to show stellar performance with total liquids output expected to grow by 1.7 mb/d this year and another 1.2 mb/d in 2019. However, companies are not adjusting their production plans, despite higher prices, due to infrastructure bottlenecks and this is unlikely to change in the near future. Even so, growth this year has returned to the extraordinary pace seen in 2014 during the first shale boom. Finally, Libyan production surged back in August to 950 kb/d, not far below the 1 mb/d level that was achieved for almost a year prior to the recent disturbances. However, as we have seen in the past few days with attacks on NOC headquarters, the situation is fragile.

As far as oil demand is concerned, following an increase of 1.4 mb/d in 2018, growth next year will be 1.5 mb/d. Even so, in 2018, we are seeing signs of weaker demand in some markets: gasoline demand is stagnant in the US as prices rise; European demand in the period May-July was consistently below year-ago levels; demand in Japan is sluggish notwithstanding very high temperatures and will be further impacted by the recent natural disasters. As we move into 2019, a possible risk to our forecast lies in some key emerging economies, partly due to currency depreciations versus the US dollar raising the cost of imported energy. In addition, there is a risk to growth from an escalation of trade disputes.

We are entering a very crucial period for the oil market. The situation in Venezuela could deteriorate even faster, strife could return to Libya and the 53 days to 4 November will reveal more decisions taken by countries and companies with respect to Iranian oil purchases. It remains to be seen if other producers decide to increase their production. The price range for Brent of $70-$80/bbl in place since April could be tested. Things are tightening up.

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Earlier: 

 Prices
2018, September, 13, 14:35:00

OIL PRICE: NEAR $79 YET

REUTERS - Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was down 70 cents a barrel at $79.04 by 0830 GMT. U.S. light crude CLc1 fell $1.15 to a low of $69.22 a barrel.

 

 Prices
2018, September, 12, 11:35:00

OIL PRICES 2018-19: $73-$74

U.S. EIA - EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

 Prices
2018, September, 5, 10:55:00

SAUDIS OIL PRICE: $70 - $80

REUTERS - “The Saudis need oil at about $80 and they don’t want prices to go below $70. They want to manage the market like this,” one of the sources told.

 Prices
2018, September, 3, 15:20:00

OIL CONFORMITY LEVEL: 109%

OPEC - The JMMC noted that countries participating in the “Declaration of Cooperation” have achieved a conformity level of 109% in July 2018, which shows significant progress towards the goal set at the 4th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting of 23 June 2018, which followed and endorsed decisions taken at the 174th Meeting of the OPEC Conference convened on 22 June 2018.

 Prices
2018, August, 8, 12:05:00

U.S. SANCTIONS FOR THE WORLD

ARAB NEWS - US President Donald Trump warned the world against doing business with Iran on Tuesday as he hailed the “most biting sanctions ever imposed,” triggering a mix of anger, fear and defiance in Tehran.

 Prices
2018, August, 8, 12:05:00

OIL PRICES 2018 - 19: $72 - $71

EIA - Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, largely unchanged from the average in June. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019.

 Prices
2018, July, 25, 09:45:00

THE DIFFICULT IRANIAN SANCTIONS

OGJ - “Russia already has improved its relations with Iran. Given its foreign policy stance toward the US, this could grow if it believes it would undermine the US position. Russia is taking a long-term view. It sees several obstacles, which it is determined to overcome.”

Tags: IEA, OIL, PRICES

Chronicle:

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE
2019, January, 18, 10:25:00

BANGLADESH'S NEW ENERGY

PLATTS - Bangladesh is planning to step up efforts to liberalize its gas and LNG sectors from 2019 in order to boost private investment and enhance energy security, a move that would likely increase domestic downstream competition and affect the competitiveness of existing oil-linked LNG supply contracts.

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE
2019, January, 18, 10:20:00

NOVATEK PRODUCTION +6.9%

NOVATEK - In 2018, NOVATEK’s hydrocarbon production totaled 548.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe), including 68.81 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas and 11,800 thousand tons of liquids (gas condensate and crude oil), resulting in an increase in total hydrocarbons produced by 35.1 million boe, or by 6.9% as compared with the twelve months 2017.

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE
2019, January, 16, 11:40:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $60

REUTERS - International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $60.68 per barrel at 0703 GMT, 4 cents above their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 2 cents from their last settlement, at $52.13 a barrel.

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE
2019, January, 16, 11:35:00

GERMANY PROTECTS EUROPE

REUTERS - Germany will try to protect German and European companies from some potentially “massive collateral damage” if Washington levies further sanctions against Russia, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said.

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