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2018-09-21 10:40:00

OIL MARKET UNCERTAINTY

OIL MARKET UNCERTAINTY

PLATTS - With a critical meeting in Algiers fast approaching, a fractured OPEC and its allies are still searching for consensus on how members with spare output capacity can equitably distribute the extra barrels they intend to pump without upsetting those unable to produce more.

The Saudi and Russian energy ministers met over the weekend to align their positions, while delegates on a six-country technical committee are scheduled to hold a conference call Monday to mull various proposals.

Meanwhile, Iran's OPEC governor accused Saudi Arabia and Russia of being in cahoots with the US to undermine other OPEC members and destabilize the oil market.

The posturing comes ahead of Sunday's summit of the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee in the Algerian capital, which reportedly will be attended by ministers from almost the entire the 24-country producer coalition.

There, the group aims to reveal a production policy that can calm market fears of tight supplies in the months ahead, while remaining nimble enough to prevent a glut if global demand proves softer than expected.

The coalition on June 23 agreed to raise output by 1 million b/d, but left unsettled how that will be allocated, with Iran insisting that members stick to individual quotas and Saudi Arabia saying the deal involves a collective production ceiling.

"As things stand, the overriding theme across the oil market is one of uncertainty," said Stephen Brannock, an analyst with brokerage PVM Oil Associates. "Market players are bracing for the full impact of US sanctions on Iran's export capabilities and the full extent of Venezuela's downward spiral. Add in a sprinkling of downside risks on the demand side of the oil equation and you have all the ingredients for price fireworks."

1.4 million b/d of Iranian oil supplies to leave the market by November, when the US sanctions go into force.

Venezuela, which pumped 1.22 million b/d in August could see output fall to 1 million b/d in 2019. Politically unstable Libya also presents a supply risk.
Meanwhile, decline on the demand is a negligible impact from the US-China trade dispute, though OPEC has projected a contraction of some 350,000 b/d in global consumption in a worst-case scenario of ratcheting tariffs.

IRAN DECRIES SAUDI-RUSSIAN TIES

Amid that backdrop and with front-month Brent crude futures briefly topping $80/b last week, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih and Russian counterpart Alexander Novak said Sunday they remained committed to "ensuring the adequacy of oil supplies, especially considering market uncertainties on the horizon."

"They also reaffirmed their continued commitment to promptly and appropriately respond to market developments, working with their partners," the ministries said in a joint statement.

Both countries have already boosted their output, by some 800,000 b/d combined since May, and Falih and Novak said they will continue working towards institutionalizing a long-term partnership between OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC countries in the coalition.

The comments came just days after the ministers held separate meetings with US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who on Friday praised the cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia in managing the oil market. US President Donald Trump has pressured OPEC -- Saudi Arabia, in particular -- not to let prices rise too high, as he prepares to reimpose sanctions on Iran.
Iran's OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said Sunday that Saudi Arabia and its close ally the UAE, which holds the rotating OPEC presidency this year, have turned the organization into a "tool for the US."

"There is no doubt that [Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US] are all against Iran," Kazempour said in an interview with Iran's oil ministry news service Shana. "OPEC's responsibility is balancing the market. ... Every single barrel and their schedules should be discussed by OPEC members."

His comments largely echo his interview with Platts on Wednesday, when he blamed Trump for "bullying" the oil market for the benefit of US, Saudi and Russian producers.

Iranian officials have threatened to block all oil exports from the Persian Gulf region if Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members infringe on Iran's sanctions-crimped market share, though they have been vague on how they would achieve such a move.
Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh plans to attend the Algiers meeting to state his country's case and plead for OPEC unity, setting up what could be difficult talks. At a June meeting of the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee in Vienna, Zanganeh abruptly walked out, calling the proceedings a farce, before later agreeing to the 1 million b/d supply increase plan.
"The US bullying behavior undoubtedly will not end with Iran and Venezuela," Kazempour said. "Silence is not the answer."

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Earlier: 

Prices
2018, September, 19, 14:07:00

OIL PRICE: NEAR $79 AGAIN

REUTERS -Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 2 cents at $79.05 a barrel by 0854 GMT, having gained 1.3 percent on Tuesday following media reports that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, was comfortable with prices above $80. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were up 15 cents at $70.00, after gaining 1.4 percent the day before.

 
 Prices
2018, September, 19, 13:47:00

OIL PRICES: $70 - $80

PLATTS - Current global oil prices at around $70-80/b are due to the volatile situation on the market and include a premium for risks associated with sanctions and oil supply cuts, but they are expected to fall to around $50/b in the long term, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday.

 Prices
2018, September, 17, 15:20:00

РОССИЯ И САУДОВСКАЯ АРАВИЯ: СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ НА РЫНКЕ

МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - Министры обсудили динамику спроса и предложения на рынке с фокусом на макроэкономические тренды и потенциальные сценарии развития ситуации в среднесрочной перспективе. Стороны подтвердили приверженность обеспечению стабильности на рынке и готовность оперативно реагировать на изменения рыночной конъюнктуры, чтобы совместно с партнерами обеспечить стабильность рынка в любых условиях.

 Prices
2018, September, 14, 12:40:00

IEA: OIL PRICES COULD RISE

IEA - If Venezuelan and Iranian exports do continue to fall, markets could tighten and oil prices could rise without offsetting production increases from elsewhere.

 

 Prices
2018, September, 12, 11:35:00

OIL PRICES 2018-19: $73-$74

U.S. EIA - EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

 

 Prices
2018, September, 5, 10:55:00

SAUDIS OIL PRICE: $70 - $80

REUTERS - “The Saudis need oil at about $80 and they don’t want prices to go below $70. They want to manage the market like this,” one of the sources told.

 

 

 Prices
2018, July, 12, 10:45:00

OPEC: OIL DEMAND UP BY 1.65 MBD

OPEC - In 2018, oil demand is expected to grow by 1.65 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, with expectations for total world consumption at 98.85 mb/d. In 2019, the initial projection indicates a global increase of around 1.45 mb/d, with annual average global consumption anticipated to surpass the 100 mb/d threshold. The OECD is once again expected to remain in positive territory, registering a rise of 0.27 mb/d with the bulk of gains originating in OECD America. The non-OECD region is anticipated to lead oil demand growth in 2019 with initial projections indicating an increase of around 1.18 mb/d, most of which is attributed to China and India. Additionally, a steady acceleration in oil demand growth is projected in Latin America and the Middle East.

Tags: OIL, MARKET, PRICE, PRODUCTION, OPEC, RUSSIA, IRAN, USA

Chronicle:

OIL MARKET UNCERTAINTY
2018, October, 22, 11:55:00

RUSSIA - EXXON: NEW PROJECTS

BLOOMBERG - Russia has begun discussions with Exxon Mobil Corp. on possible new oil and gas projects, potentially creating a dilemma as the U.S. government mulls more sanctions against the country.

OIL MARKET UNCERTAINTY
2018, October, 22, 11:50:00

IMF HAS UKRAINE FOR $3.9 BLN

IMF - The agreement reached today reflects the IMF’s commitment to continue to help Ukraine achieve stronger, sustainable, and inclusive economic growth. The new program has been developed in close coordination with the World Bank and the European Union, who have parallel operations to support Ukraine. The authorities’ steadfast and effective implementation will be critical for the program to achieve its objectives.

OIL MARKET UNCERTAINTY
2018, October, 22, 11:45:00

UKRAINE'S GAS PRICES UP 23.5%

CNBC - Ukraine announced on Friday it would raise household gas prices by nearly a quarter as Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman warned that the country risked default if it crashed out of its International Monetary Fund aid program.

OIL MARKET UNCERTAINTY
2018, October, 22, 11:40:00

SCHLUMBERGER NET INCOME $644 MLN

Schlumberger Announces Third-Quarter 2018 Results Revenue of $8.5 billion increased 2% sequentially Pretax operating income of $1.2 billion increased 5% sequentially EPS was $0.46 Cash flow from operations was $1.8 billion Free cash flow was $1.0 billion

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