OPEC CAN INCREASE

PLATTS - Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak believes the countries taking part in the OPEC-led production cut deal are capable of increasing the combined crude output further to cover potential shortages in the market and expect oil prices would likely correct down in the upcoming winter season on lower demand.

The comments came amid concerns that OPEC-led alliance may not be able to offer new extra barrels to the markets to cover potential deficit that may appear in coming months, as the US sanctions on Iran come in full force in November, while production at some countries like Venezuela continues to fall.

"There is a fairly significant combined potential by the countries [participating in the deal] that can increase production and this potential can be used if necessary," Novak said Wednesday.

"I don't know what deficit you're talking about," he told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum.

Novak said he does not see risks of oil supply shortages in the near term due to seasonal factor as demand is to reduce in winter.

Seasonal factors are also likely to help avoid potential increases in oil prices, Novak said, even though he believes that the oil market remains "fragile" and the Iran issue adds a "huge uncertainty" to the market.

"I don't forecast too high prices. To the contrary, I think the price can be corrected down, taking into account [upcoming] low demand season, while currently we are still in the high demand summer level," Novak said.

On Tuesday, Novak did not rule out that the OPEC-led group might ease further production cut caps should the market situation demands more barrels to cover potential deficits.

He however, declined to say what proposal Russia is prepared for the group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which is to gather on September 22-23 in Algeria.

"The situation has been changing and we need to give a serious estimate of the current stand of affairs and also supply and demand forecasts for the next six months in Algeria," he said, adding that the technical committee of the group is preparing such a study.

RUSSIA'S POTENTIAL

Russia has the potential to boost crude production by 300,000 b/d from the October 2016 level to around 11.547 million b/d within a year, but the actual output dynamic will depend on companies' investment plans and economic feasibility, Novak said earlier in the day.

He said the potential estimate does not mean that volume will actually be produced, and warned against taking this estimate as an action plan.

"This does not mean that such actions will be taken. This is my estimate, but any estimate is subject to updates based on the market conditions in which a company operates," he said.

"No decisions have been taken so far to this effect," he added.

If Russian oil producers decide to use in full its production potential, the country's crude production will hit new record highs. Russia produced a record 11.247 million b/d of crude and condensate in October 2016, before it started reducing production within the OPEC-led production cut deal.

Russian increased output by around 250,000 b/d from May's level, following a decision by the OPEC-led production cut alliance to return some 1 million b/d to the market through maintaining the 100% compliance to the initial deal, contrary to significant overdoing previously.

Under the original deal in force since January 2017, the group agreed to cut the combined output by 1.8 million b/d to help the market balancing. This included Russia's commitment to cut the output by 300,000 b/d from its October 2016 output of 11.247 million b/d.

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Earlier:

2018, September, 10, 13:05:00 OIL PRICE: NEAR $78 REUTERS - Benchmark Brent crude oil rose $1.09 a barrel, or 1.4 percent, to a high of $77.92 and was trading at $77.85 by 0900 GMT. U.S. light crude was 70 cents higher at $68.45.

2018, September, 7, 12:53:00 OPEC'S OIL PRODUCTION: 32.89 MBD PLATTS - OPEC's crude oil production in August, not including newest member Congo, rose to a 10-month high, with Iraq surging to record output and Libya recovering from militia fighting, more than offsetting Iran's slide as the sanctions-hit country struggles to keep its customers, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey.

2018, September, 7, 12:45:00 U.S. PETROLEUM EXPORT RECORD U.S. EIA - The United States exported 7.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products in the first half of 2018, when exports of crude oil and hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) set record monthly highs. Crude oil surpassed HGLs to become the largest U.S. petroleum export, with 1.8 million b/d of exports in the first half of 2018. U.S. exports of crude oil, HGLs, and motor gasoline grew in the first half of 2018 compared with the same period in 2017, while distillate exports decreased 84,000 b/d

2018, September, 3, 15:30:00 RUSSIA'S OIL PRODUCTION: 11.2 MBD REUTERS -Russian oil output stood at 11.21 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, virtually unchanged from July and steady near a post-Soviet high as production curbs were eased, Energy Ministry data showed on Sunday.

2018, September, 3, 15:20:00 OIL CONFORMITY LEVEL: 109% OPEC - The JMMC noted that countries participating in the “Declaration of Cooperation” have achieved a conformity level of 109% in July 2018, which shows significant progress towards the goal set at the 4th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting of 23 June 2018, which followed and endorsed decisions taken at the 174th Meeting of the OPEC Conference convened on 22 June 2018.

2018, September, 3, 15:15:00 SAUDIS OIL PRODUCTION: 10.4 MBD PLATTS - Saudi Arabia will report August crude oil production of 10.424 million b/d, an OPEC source told S&P Global Platts on Friday. The figure represents a 136,000 b/d increase from July, when Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer and the world's largest crude exporter, self-reported production of 10.288 million b/d.

2018, September, 3, 15:05:00 UNIMPORTANT RUSSIA SANCTIONS FT - Higher energy prices and a weakened rouble saw second-quarter profits soar at three of Russia’s largest oil and gas groups, underlining a strong earnings season for the country’s energy industry that has weathered international sanctions to reap strong earnings.