RUS | ENG
Enter the email or login, that you used for registration.
If you do not remember your password, simply leave this field blank and you will receive a new, along with a link to activate.

Not registered yet?
Welcome!

2019-04-10 11:05:00

IRAN'S OIL RECOVERY

IRAN'S OIL RECOVERY

PLATTS - Iranian oil exports, which have been laboring under US sanctions since late last year, have recovered close to prior levels, supported by unflinching demand from China and South Korea, data from shipping sources and provisional tanker tracking data showed Tuesday.

Crude and condensate shipments from the Persian Gulf producer surged 12% to 1.70 million b/d in March, the highest since October, as key buyers scrambled to pick up more volumes before US sanctions waivers expire in early May.

Exports could fall in the coming months if the US tightens its grip on Iran crude purchases from those eight countries given special treatment, according to analysts.

The market is still searching for clarity, but many believe Iran's biggest customers will likely get an extension to the waivers.

FALLING INVENTORIES

Exports slumped to 1.08 million b/d in November a fall of almost 1.34 million b/d since May when the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, according to Platts cFlow trade flow data showed. But since November volumes have recovered by 60% surprising many on the market.

Sources noted the rise in exports comes despite a huge fall in Iranian crude production because the OPEC member has been utilizing barrels from storage.

Data from Ursa, a geospatial analytics startup, which tracks oil inventories using satellite data, shows that Iran's crude inventories have fallen by almost 25% since early January, led by Kharg Island, the country's main export terminal, which saw a 30% decline in March.

"This suggests Iran's oil production has fallen below exports, forcing barrels from storage to cover any shortfall," said Geoffrey Craig, an energy analyst at Ursa. "With the US granting exemptions to some of Iran's biggest customers, exports seem to have fared better than anticipated."

Iran produced 2.69 million b/d of crude in March, according to the recent S&P Global Platts OPEC Survey, a fall of 280,000 b/d from November.

China, India and South Korea all significantly increased purchases of Iranian oil as supplies of particularly heavy to medium crude have tightened sharply in the past few months.

Supply of medium, heavy sour crudes remain a key concern for Asian refiners due to a lack of volumes from Venezuela, Iran and other major sources of heavy sour crude.

Demand for Iranian crude in the world's largest crude importer has rebounded in recent months. Flows to China averaged 627,710 b/d last month from levels of 571,464 b/d in February.

Indian buying interest in March was up with around 350,000 b/d sailing there, a rise of over 70,000 b/d from February.

US UNCERTAINTY

Most analysts expect at least four of Iran's top crude and condensate buyers to get an extension of US waivers, albeit at lower levels.

China, India, Turkey and South Korea are likely to be granted one while exemptions for Italy, Greece, Japan and Taiwan are likely to halt, according to a recent survey carried out by Platts, which polled a dozen analysts closely tracking Iranian oil sanctions policy.

Italy, Greece and Taiwan have not imported Iranian oil since October despite having waivers.

The US administration insists that it is committed to "zeroing out" Iranian crude oil exports but most analysts remain skeptical that exports would fall to this number.

"We don't expect Iran oil exports to reach to actual zero. Zero Iran oil export poses a serious threat against the security of oil flow, especially from the Persian Gulf," said Sara Vakshouri, president of SVB Energy International.

Vakshouri estimated Iran's oil exports to average 470,000-500,000 b/d if only China, India and Turkey receive exemptions. "If Japan and South Korea also succeed to receive Iran oil import waivers, Iran oil export could reach to 670,000-850,000 b/d," she added.

A moderate number of Iran's state-owned oil tankers continue to not broadcasting their geographical positions, making it tricky to ascertain the exact amount of the country's seaborne crude exports.

Iran is also starting to holding crude and condensates on tankers as floating storage. Representatives at Iran's oil ministry declined to comment.

-----

Earlier:

 IRAN'S SOUTH PARS GAS UP
2019, March, 20, 10:30:00

IRAN'S SOUTH PARS GAS UP

Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh said the country’s gas production capacity from the supergiant South Pars gas field would cross 750 million cubic meters per day by late 2019.

 
 OPEC+ JOB NOT ENOUGH
2019, March, 18, 13:15:00

OPEC+ JOB NOT ENOUGH

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday OPEC’s job in rebalancing the oil market was far from done as global inventories were still rising despite harsh U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, signaling it may need to expand output cuts into the second half of 2019.

 
 INDIA WANTS IRAN'S OIL
2019, March, 13, 11:05:00

INDIA WANTS IRAN'S OIL

India wants to keep buying Iranian oil at its current level of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), as it negotiates with Washington about extending a sanctions waiver past early May, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. New Delhi is asking to be allowed to still buy Iranian oil at current levels of around 1.25 million tonnes per month, or about 300,000 barrels per day, the sources said.

 
 IRAN'S GAS WILL UP
2019, March, 13, 11:00:00

IRAN'S GAS WILL UP

Iran is to launch four new phases at South Pars, the world’s largest gas field, with a production capacity of up to 110 million cubic meters per day, the oil ministry said

 
 IRAN'S OIL FOR INDIA DOWN 41%
2019, January, 14, 11:55:00

IRAN'S OIL FOR INDIA DOWN 41%

REUTERS - India’s oil imports from Iran fell by 41 percent in December to 302,000 barrels per day oil (bpd), ship tracking data reviewed by Reuters showed, as pressure from U.S. sanctions took effect.

 
 IRAN'S OIL FOR S.KOREA: ZERO
2018, December, 17, 10:20:00

IRAN'S OIL FOR S.KOREA: ZERO

PLATTS - South Korea imported no Iranian crude in November for a third straight month due to the re-imposition of US sanctions on Tehran, according to preliminary data released by the Korea Customs Service on Monday.

 
 IRAN'S OIL: NO CUTS
2018, December, 14, 09:00:00

IRAN'S OIL: NO CUTS

SHANA - “OPEC resolution states that the Secretary-General and OPEC's President would allow countries that subject to certain sanctions to be exempted from production cuts,” Zangeneh added.

 

 

Log in to read the publication.

An authorized user gets access to four FREE publications per month.

You can also buy a full access to all publications of the site since January 2014.

Tags: IRAN, OIL, PRODUCTION, EXPORTS

Chronicle:

IRAN'S OIL RECOVERY
2019, April, 17, 11:10:00

RUSSIA'S ARCTIC ENERGY

Russian energy major Gazprom Neft expects the Arctic to account for more than half its oil and gas production by 2020,

IRAN'S OIL RECOVERY
2019, April, 17, 11:05:00

NUCLEAR FOR BETTER LIFE

Alexey Likhachev reminded the audience that the Forum motto is “Nuclear for better life”. Each sphere of human activity is affected by the achievements of nuclear industry. “Peaceful atom is associated with all aims and goals of UN sustainable development program. This Forum will become a space for discussing newest technologies that will lay the basis for the future of our planet”, Mr Likhachev emphasized.

IRAN'S OIL RECOVERY
2019, April, 17, 11:00:00

RUSSIA, DUBAI INVESTMENT

The investment incentives provided by Dubai government and the business opportunities up for grabs on the horizon were the crux of a meeting officials of the Dubai Land Department, DLD, had with a Russian delegation who participated in the recently concluded Annual Investment Meeting 2019.

IRAN'S OIL RECOVERY
2019, April, 17, 10:55:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February; for the first quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.3 percent at an annual rate.

All Publications »