U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 5.4%

U.S. FRB - July 15, 2020 - Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter as a whole, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after World War II. Manufacturing output climbed 7.2 percent in June, as all major industries posted increases. The largest gain—105.0 percent—was registered by motor vehicles and parts, while factory production elsewhere rose 3.9 percent. Mining production fell 2.9 percent, and the output of utilities increased 4.2 percent. At 97.5 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 10.8 percent lower in June than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 3.5 percentage points to 68.6 percent in June, a rate that is 11.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 1.9 percentage points above its trough during the Great Recession.

Market Groups

The major market groups posted broad-based gains in June, but each still remained below its pre-pandemic level. The jump in the output of motor vehicles and parts contributed to the largest gains among the market groups: Consumer durables, business equipment, and durable materials posted increases of 36.6 percent, 11.8 percent, and 7.4 percent, respectively. The indexes for business supplies and for defense and space equipment each rose more than 4 percent. The only decline among the major market groups was posted by energy materials, held down by further reductions in oil extraction.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output increased 7.2 percent in June, but it was still 11.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level; factory output fell 47.0 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter. The index for durable manufacturing rose 11.6 percent in June. Despite substantial gains in the past two months, the output of motor vehicles and parts remained nearly 25 percent below its February level. The index for nondurables rose 3.4 percent, with sizable gains for apparel and leather and for plastics and rubber products. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) increased 2.2 percent.

The output of utilities rose 4.2 percent in June, as both gas and electric utilities posted gains. Mining output fell 2.9 percent, with declines in nearly all categories. The index for oil and gas well drilling fell 18.0 percent in June and was about 70 percent below its year-earlier level. For the second quarter, mining output declined 42.7 percent at an annual rate.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing in June was 66.9 percent, 4.6 percentage points higher than in May and 3.2 percentage points above its recession trough of June 2009. The operating rate for durable manufacturing increased 6.7 percentage points in June to 64.3 percent, 5.9 percentage points above its 2009 low. Capacity utilization for nondurables rose 2.4 percentage points to 70.6 percent, 1.8 percentage points above its 2009 low. The operating rate for mining fell to 75.0 percent, somewhat below its low in 2016 but slightly above its historical low in 1986.

Note: Revised Estimates of Industrial Capacity

The estimates for industrial capacity for 2020 were revised for this release. The revisions reflect updated measures of physical capacity from various government and private sources as well as updated estimates of capital spending by industry. Measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, capacity for the industrial sector is now expected to be flat, whereas previously it was estimated to rise 1.3 percent. Manufacturing capacity is estimated to edge down 0.2 percent, a downward revision of 1.0 percentage point. Mining capacity also revised down and is now expected to decline 2.1 percent; it had been expected to expand 2.9 percent. This downward revision primarily reflects a reduction in capacity for oil and gas extraction. The gain in capacity for utilities, at 3.2 percent, is only 0.1 percentage point lower than previously estimated.

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