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2021-01-27 14:05:00

GLOBAL GAS DEMAND WILL UP BY 2.8%

GLOBAL GAS DEMAND WILL UP BY 2.8%

IEAJanuary 2021Gas Market Report Q1-2021

Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by 2.8% in 2021 (about 110 bcm), thus reaching slightly above its 2019 level. However, this masks differences in the pace of growth among regions, sectors and markets. 

Fast-growing markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East are projected to see increased gas demand in 2021 while mature markets may experience a more gradual recovery, and some may not reach their 2019 level in 2021. 

Industrial sector demand is expected to take the lead with close to 40 bcm (3.9%) y-o-y growth, principally driven by markets in Asia, as global output and trade volumes recover in 2021. (The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in October 2020 projects growth of 5.2% in global output and 8.3% in trade volume in 2021.) 

Residential and commercial gas demand is assumed to regain around 30 bcm (3.6%) based on a return to average seasonal temperatures, as forecast in the seasonal outlooks of the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 

Gas demand in the power generation sector is projected to only partially recover in 2021 with a 30 bcm (1.7%) increase, owing to a combination of low electricity demand growth and tougher competition in mature markets related to the expansion of renewables, the prospect of an increase in coal use in the United States and nuclear resarts in Japan. 

Global gas demand recovery therefore is fragile. It is subject to a range of uncertainties and risks from delayed industrial rebound, mild temperatures and stronger fuel competition in power generation that could lead to lower demand for natural gas in 2021.

 

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Tags: GAS