AUSTRALIA'S GAS PLAN
ENERDATA - 30 Nov 2021 - Australia has released the first National Gas Infrastructure Plan (NGIP) to identify a long-term development pathway for gas supply and infrastructure out to 2040. Demand for gas in the east coast gas market is forecast to be relatively stable across all demand scenarios until the mid-2030s, with established domestic customers and LNG export contracts supporting continued production. Increased market penetration of renewables will lead to greater requirements for peaking power generation, which is currently supplied by gas-fired power plants, and there are plans to build additional capacity on the east coast. Around 70% of gas produced on the east coast is currently destined for LNG export markets, the largest of which are China and Japan, and a large share of export demand is supported by long-term contracts that will expire in the mid-2030s.
Supply from both existing southern and northern basins is expected to decline during the remainder of this decade. In the longer term, forecasts highlight that without action, progressive declines in production from existing northern and southern basins will lead to gas shortages. Consequently, new basin supply must be developed by the end of this decade. In addition, the country plans to expand transportation capacity from north to south, as northern supply expands and southern supply declines.
Natural gas consumption increased very rapidly between 2000 and 2019 (3%/year) and then dropped by 3% in 2020 to 40 bcm. Electricity production accounts for 33% of the consumption, the hydrocarbon sector for 26%, industry for 25%, and buildings for around 16%. Natural gas production increased very rapidly, at a pace of around 20%/year over 2015-2019 and 8% in 2020, reaching 154 bcm. Most of the production is sourced from three basins: the Carnarvon Basin (north-west Western Australia), the Gippsland Basin (Victoria), and the Cooper-Eromanga Basin (central Australia).