2021-07-02 12:35:00
OPEC+ 2 MBD
PLATTS - 01 Jul 2021 - OPEC and its allies appear in striking distance of a deal on production quotas, discussing proposals that call for an output increase of about 2 million b/d from August to December to meet recovering global oil demand, three sources told S&P Global Platts.
If agreed, the OPEC+ alliance's collective production cuts would shrink by about one-third by the end of the year to about 3.76 million b/d, from July's 5.76 million b/d.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the deal was not yet finalized and that Saudi Arabia was seeking some flexibility to rescind all, or part of the output increases, if Washington and Tehran revive the nuclear deal that relieves sanctions on Iran's oil exports.
Platts Analytics forecasts that Iranian crude and condensate exports could rise to 1.5 million b/d in December from 600,000 b/d in May, if a nuclear deal can be clinched in the coming weeks, though talks appear to have stalled after six rounds of negotiations in Vienna.
OPEC ministers began their formal meeting earlier July 1. Russia and nine other partners will join the talks later in the day.
An advisory technical committee met June 29 to review the latest forecasts devised by the OPEC secretariat, the base case of which sees oil demand rising 6 million b/d in 2021, with world economic growth at 5.5%.
According to the analysis, which was seen by Platts, if OPEC+ countries hold production levels flat through the rest of the year, global oil demand would exceed supply by 1.6 million b/d in Q3 and 2.2 million b/d in Q4.
Ministers are also considering whether to extend the OPEC+ supply cooperation accord beyond its April expiry to the end of 2022, delegates said.
Platts assessed Dated Brent at $76.19/b on June 30, a more than 50% rise since the beginning of the year and a far cry from when the price bottomed out at $13.24/b on April 21, 2020.
-----
Earlier:
2021, June, 25, 12:45:00
OPEC OIL NEEDED
OPEC+ negotiations on August production levels will pick up in earnest on June 29, with a meeting of the delegate-level advisory Joint Technical Committee, before the nine-country Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia convene on June 30.
2021, June, 9, 12:45:00
OPEC+ OIL PRODUCTION UP 430 TBD
Despite the production gains, the looser quotas meant OPEC+ compliance stayed mostly steady at 111.45% compared to 111.16% in April,
2021, June, 2, 14:05:00
OPEC+ PRODUCTION: 114%, + 2 MBD
Overall conformity to the production adjustments was 114% in April (including Mexico), ... to gradually return 2 million barrels a day (mb/d) of the adjustments to the market, with the pace being determined according to market conditions.
2021, May, 7, 14:55:00
OPEC+ OVERPRODUCTION 3.3 MBD
Russia, the largest non-OPEC partner in the alliance, has increasingly flouted its cap over the last several months, with its excess production soaring to 877,000 b/d.
2021, April, 23, 11:35:00
OPEC+ PRODUCTION WILL UP
OPEC+ officials said they see no reason to be alarmed, and the group's production is set to rise anyway.
2021, April, 12, 10:20:00
OPEC+ OIL PRODUCTION UP 450 TBD
With the production gains, OPEC+ compliance with its quotas slipped to 111% in March, compared with 113.5% in February, juiced by Saudi Arabia voluntarily cutting an additional 1 million b/d since January.
2021, April, 2, 12:45:00
OPEC+ INCREASE PRODUCTION
The OPEC+ alliance will raise its collective output caps by 350,000 b/d in May, another 350,000 b/d in June, and 441,000 b/d in July.
