2022-02-17 13:50:00
U.S. OIL PRODUCTION WILL RISE
U.S. EIA - FEBRUARY 16, 2022 - In our February 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that crude oil prices will remain high enough to drive U.S. crude oil production to record-high levels in 2023, reaching a forecast 12.6 million barrels per day (b/d). We expect new production in the Permian Basin to drive overall U.S. crude oil production growth.
In the February STEO, we forecast that U.S. crude oil production will increase to 12.0 million b/d in 2022, up 760,000 b/d from 2021. We forecast that crude oil production in the United States will rise by 630,000 b/d in 2023 to average 12.6 million b/d. We expect more than 80% of that crude oil production growth to come from the Lower 48 states (L48), which does not include production from Alaska and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico.
Production from new L48 wells, particularly in the Permian region, drive our forecast of U.S. crude oil production growth. Legacy production, or crude oil production from existing wells, typically declines relatively quickly in tight oil formations, and we expect that production from new wells will offset these legacy production declines.
Crude oil prices have generally increased since April 2020, resulting in increased crude oil production. The Brent spot price for crude oil (the international benchmark) reached $97 per barrel (b) on February 7, 2022, the highest nominal price (not adjusted for inflation) since September 17, 2014.
From January 8, 2021, to February 7, 2022, the L48 added 220 oil-directed rigs, 114 of which were in the Permian region. We forecast that production in the Permian region will average 5.3 million b/d in 2022 and 5.7 million b/d in 2023.
Our crude oil production forecast assumes the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price averages $79/b in 2022 and $64/b in 2023, which we expect will lead to continued increases in drilling activity and crude oil production in the United States. The price forecast is highly uncertain, however, and a number of factors could push prices higher or lower than our forecast.
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Earlier:
2022, February, 11, 11:40:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 2022: +4.2 MBD
In 2022, oil demand growth is expected at 4.2 mb/d unchanged from last month, with OECD and non-OECD projected to grow by 1.8 mb/d and 2.3 mb/d, respectively.
2022, February, 10, 14:50:00
U.S. OIL INVENTORIES DOWN BY 4.8 MB TO 410.4 MB
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week to 410.4 million barrels.
2022, February, 9, 12:25:00
OIL PRICES 2022-23: $87-$68
This dynamic leads to rising global oil inventories from 2Q22 through the end of 2023, and the Brent spot price will fall to an average of $87/b in 2Q22 and $75/b in 4Q22. The Brent price will average $68/b for all of 2023.
2022, January, 20, 15:50:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WILL UP TO 100 MBD
World oil demand was seen rising by 5.5 million b/d in 2021 and by 3.3 million b/d in 2022, the IEA said, surpassing its pre-pandemic levels by 200,000 b/d to 99.7 million b/d.
2022, January, 12, 10:35:00
OIL PRICES 2022-23: $75-$68
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in 2021, and we forecast Brent prices will average $75/b in 2022 and $68/b in 2023.
2021, December, 23, 16:15:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND RECOVERY
Underlying oil demand fundaments remain strong going into 2022. Pent-up demand is already stretching supply lines to the limit while booster jabs and previous infections lower the chance of serious harm from the virus.
2021, December, 14, 14:35:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 2021: + 5.7 MBD ANEW
World oil demand is kept unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, showing a growth of 5.7 mb/d in 2021.
