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2022-08-15 12:30:00

EUROPEAN HUNGRY WINTER

EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER

 

By LLEWELLYN KING Executive Producer and Host White House Media, LLC

ENERGYCENTRALAug 8, 2022 - Even as Europe has been dealing with its hottest summer on record, it has been fearfully aware that it may face its worst winter since the one at the end of World War II, from 1944 to 1945.

Electricity shortages and unpayable fuel prices for many households are in store for Europe.

Industrial production in Germany, Europe’s economic driver, is threatened, and governments from London to Athens are struggling with how they will help with energy bills right now, let alone in the dead of winter.

Electricity production on the European grid was already strained due to the change from coal and gas generation to renewables.

Germany worsened a tight supply by shutting down its nuclear plants, and the new reliance on wind power was severely questioned by a wind drought last fall, especially in the North Sea.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in March, things went from tightness of supply to impending disaster. Russia, through a complex network of pipelines, is the principal supplier of natural gas to Europe and all petroleum products to Germany. Now it has curtailed normal flows.

Europe is heavily dependent on gas for heating and for making electricity. As things stand, all of Europe is hurting, especially Germany. The country may suffer as dreadful a winter as it did at the end of World War II when there was no coal, the essential fuel at the time.

The unknowns revolve around Russia’s war in Ukraine. These are possible scenarios:

—Russia wins outright; Europe continues sanctions and is punished with gas interruptions. Result: Europe freezes this winter.

—There is a political settlement, the rebuilding of Ukraine begins and the gas flows again.

—Ukraine repulses Russia on the ground; Russia changes regime and abandons the fight.

—The conflict worsens, and NATO is drawn in. Europe rations fuel, including kerosene. It is a wartime footing for all of Europe.

—Germany decides it has had enough and makes a deal with Russia. Ukraine is figuratively thrown under the bus.

While the United States and other gas-producing nations will export all they can to Europe in the form of liquified natural gas, those sources are already heavily committed. The United States, for example, has just seven LNG export terminals. These take years to license and build; the same goes for the receiving terminals and LNG tankers. Additionally, most European receiving terminals are in the West, and the severest shortages are in the East.

It is too late to change one certainty about the coming winter: high food prices everywhere, including in the United States, and starvation in developing countries. Ukraine is exporting grain haltingly, but those shipments are too small and too late. Afghanistan and Somalia are already in a food crisis, starting what is set to be a world run on grain provided in humanitarian relief.

The terrible European winter of 1944 to 1945 is known as the Hunger Winter. Prepare to hear that term resurrected.

The world must brace for the coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere with political uncertainty and weak, inward-looking leaders in many countries. In the United States, the midterm elections are set to produce division. In France, President Emmanuel Macron has lost control of the National Assembly. Britain is seeking a new Tory prime minister to replace Boris Johnson. Italy is facing an election that some forecasts say will go to the isolationist fascists.

The democracies are riven with culture wars and other indulgences as Europe’s crisis is in the making. For much of the rest of the world, a new Hunger Winter looms. Many will be cold this winter, others will be hungry. Untold numbers will die.

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This thought leadership article was originally shared with Energy Central's Utility Management Community Group. The communities are a place where professionals in the power industry can share, learn and connect in a collaborative environment. Join the Utility Management Community today and learn from others who work in the industry.

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Earlier:

EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, August, 12, 08:50:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE DOWN
Russia’s natural gas exports by pipeline to the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) declined by almost 40% during the first seven months of 2022 compared with the same period in 2021 and by almost 50% compared with the previous five-year (2017–21) average,
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, August, 12, 08:45:00
EUROPEAN POWER PRICES UP
Benchmark German power for next year rose as much as 4.5% to a record 446 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, August, 4, 10:40:00
EUROPE WILL PAY MORE
Energy consumer prices are rising at an annual rate of nearly 40 per cent in the eurozone and 57 per cent in the UK, reflecting the surge in wholesale gas and oil prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That is drastically eating into households’ disposable income.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, August, 4, 10:30:00
EUROPE NEED OIL GAS INVESTMENT
TotalEnergies said it would boost spending on short-cycle projects this year to help ease Europe's growing energy supply crunch. It expects its full-year capital spending to hit $16 billion in 2022 as it hopes to increase its sources of European natural gas and produce more LNG in the coming months.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, August, 2, 12:15:00
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES GROWTH
Russia has cut exports to Europe to multiyear lows this summer -- supplying less than a third of normal volumes -- and there’s no clarity on further moves.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, July, 14, 12:30:00
RUSSIAN, EUROPE SANCTIONS WITHOUT GAS
"What is definitely problematic is to include energy into the sanctions, because a rule must be observed that the sanctions must have a greater impact on Russia than on the countries imposing the sanctions."
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, May, 19, 13:50:00
EUROPEAN ENERGY SUICIDE
Saying no to Russian energy means that Europe will systemically and for the long term become the world’s most costly region for energy resources.
All Publications »
Tags: EUROPE, RUSSIA, ENERGY, OIL, GAS, SANCTIONS
Chronicle:
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:14:00
2022 SAUDI PIPELINES INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXIBITIONS
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EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:13:00
INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS AND EXIBITION TURKEY & BLACK SEA OIL AND GAS
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EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:12:00
Pipelines In A Sustainable Future And Other Highlights Of TOGC 2023(TOGC 2023)
Transportation Oil and Gas Congress (TOGC) is held on February, 20-21, 2023, Istanbul, Türkiye. During 2 days of intensive networking participants get direct access to the whole pipeline chain. Among the highlights of the program are Panels, show type sessions based on discussion between panelists. They discuss the role of pipelines in a sustainable future, digital transformation and optimization of the pipeline industry, pipeline economics and pipeline integrity, H2 in Gas Grid.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:11:00
TRANSPORTATION OIL AND GAS CONGRASS 2023 (TOGC 2023)
Transportation Oil and Gas Congress 2023 (TOGC 2023) takes place on February 20-21, 2023. The Congress brings together representatives from the whole pipeline chain and focuses on both strategic and technical issues of the oil and gas pipeline transportation.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:10:00
NORWAY OIL, GAS PRODUCTION 1.998 MBD
Preliminary production figures for August 2022 show an average daily production of 1 998 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:05:00
U.S. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 3.00 - 3.25%
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.
EUROPEAN  HUNGRY WINTER
2022, September, 28, 12:04:00
9TH INTERNATIONAL LNG CONGRESS LNGCON 2023
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All Publications »