2023-04-21 06:30:00
RUSSIA INFLATION SLOWDOWN
By Andy Warr, TophatFinanceGroup.
Starting off the 2nd Quarter,its coming to the realisation that not all recessions are created equal.
Oil has been on a thin range of trade,still maintaining the $80/bbl stability average with WTI trading at $82.52 & $86.41 on the #BRENT.
The range has been about (+/-)5$ despite all the data coming in from last week.
This is due to the OPEC+ data influx from the previous week as we approach the geopolitics front with more prudence.
On the focus in Metals portfolio ;
De-dollarisation is a key factor to the Gold price.
Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer price index inflation grew at a slower pace in March, coming a day after data showed consumer price inflation also eased.
The readings furthered expectations that inflation was retreating, which could invite a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
The Banks remain neutral in #Silver and Open Interest is not materially increasing despite the rally from $17/ounce to >$25/ounce.
As I write this,we are currently at $25.90/ounce after consistent bullish run from mid Wednesday(European session) when trading at $24.88/ounce pivot price.
It seems the Banks don't want to get run over in Silver and are stepping back, much like Palladium in 2018.
This suggests that Silver is about to be a tad bit volatile in the financial quarters to come.
Russia's annual inflation slows to 3.5% in March.
Annual inflation in Russia slowed to 3.51% in March 2023 from 10.99% in February, reaching its lowest level since July 2020.
Furthermore, based on 10 days of April data this year and last year, Russia's annual inflation slowed to about 2.8% as of April 10 from 3.51% in late March.
Provided this trend holds, year-on-year inflation may ease to 2.4%-2.5% by late April, but could start climbing from May due to the last year's low base.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that annual inflation in the country will drop below 3% by April, though it is important to avoid both an excessive acceleration of inflation and its excessive slowdown.
The Bank of Russia's inflation forecast for 2023 is 5-7%, while the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is 5.5%.
Earlier on March 17, Russia's central bank expectedly kept its key rate at 7.5%, saying the risks of higher inflation are still there.
On the FX Spot Markets,we see that the #Euro has become the strongest vs the Dollar in a year timespan,trading at 1.10200.
Currently,we are trading at 1.1064 as we approach the European Open.
This is where I'd suggest we put our brakes on because a pullback may come in deep in the coming weeks.
As we look forward to increasing trading volume after the Easter holidays and Ramadan,I would like to wish you all many blessings in your endeavours.
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Earlier:
2023, April, 14, 07:35:00
RUSSIAN URALS DISCOUNT
Urals, Russia’s main crude export blend, has traded at a significant discount to the Brent benchmark since the European Union banned almost all seaborne imports of oil and petroleum products from the country, and the Group of Seven industrialized nations imposed a price cap.
2023, April, 7, 07:35:00
ОПЕК+: МИНУС 3.6 МБД
Делегаты встречи подтвердили приверженность решению альянса от 5 октября 2022 года по ограничению добычи нефти на 2 млн баррелей в сутки (к уровню августа 2022 года) до конца 2023 года, а также призвали все страны-участницы добиться полного соответствия условиям соглашения и придерживаться компенсационного механизма.
2023, April, 7, 07:30:00
OPEC+: (- 3.6) MBD
This will bring the total additional voluntary production adjustments by the above-mentioned countries to 1.66 million b/d.
2023, April, 7, 07:10:00
RUSSIAN DIESEL FOR TURKEY
Since Turkey can legitimately still import diesel-type fuel from Russia, traders can potentially bring in relatively cheap barrels to meet the country’s energy needs. At the same time, Turkey’s own production could be sold at a higher price to the EU.
2023, March, 31, 08:00:00
RUSSIA, EU BUSINESS & SANCTIONS
The EU says its sanctions are meant to cut Moscow revenues and access to technology used in war.
2023, March, 24, 07:35:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WILL UP BY 2.3 MBD
For 2023, the world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.3 mb/d, with the OECD Americas and OECD Europe revised slightly lower, while China is revised higher, with jet/kerosene and gasoline leading demand growth.
2023, March, 15, 07:15:00
РОССИЯ - ОТВЕТСТВЕННЫЙ ПОСТАВЩИК ЭНЕРГОРЕСУРСОВ
Энергетический сектор по-прежнему сталкивается с новыми вызовами, и нынешняя геополитическая ситуация негативно сказывается на мировых энергетических рынках.
