2023-07-07 06:30:00
RUSSIA: SENTINEL OF THE GLOBAL BREAD BASKET
Its the start of the 2nd half of the financial year & the Nasdaq 100 seems to be ripping up even further.This has been due to the recent realisation of the AI(Artificial Intelligence) carving up a niche within the Index.Headwinds to this is the semiconductor chip makers geopolitics between China & the US with the key ingredients being Germanium.
Oil-entropy is still ongoing,somewhat of a tug of war developing with a mix of SPR watch outs.At least the volume on the Geopolitics has toned down a bit,maybe on the 'baguette' side of life where protests have been rocking Paris.Taiwan presidential hopeful vows to maintain peace with China.
BRENT Crude is in backwardation trading at $74.92/bbl,$2.696/mmBtu on the Natural Gas,majority of traders using a periscope to gauge where the bottom is at,Silver also looking promising,currently, the silver price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5523RMB/KG, equivalent to 23.69 US dollars/ounce,this has been noted to be crucial in the solar power panels debate.
Our focus this week is on the Wheat tabs within the Global Agriculture complex;
Russia to export 20% in cargoes of wheat this season.
With another proper bumper harvest starting in the country's fertile farmlands, Russia will be the source of one in five cargoes of exported wheat in the season that starts July 1, according to the US Department of Agriculture(USDA).
By contrast,
Ukraine's share will halve from pre-2022 levels to about 5% as production suffers long-term damage from hostilities and disrupted logistics chains.
Middle East and North Africa are key buyers of Russian grain & this is something that rattles Western political analysts who accuse Moscow of using soft power to keep the "Global South on their side." Russia exports oilseeds & grains mainly to Middle East and North Africa.
With another large wheat harvest beginning, Russia is expected to ship record volumes for the 2nd year in a row.Its back to back wins for Russia it seems as we enter the 2023 second half.
Despite the bumper crop and massive inventories sending wheat prices tumbling,Moscow has been maneuvering to limit those discounts and gain greater control over its agriculture sector.
On the Global Forex Front,
~RBA's Lowe keeps benchmark Interest rate at 4.1%.
We have seen good moves within the LATAM Currencies,good gains across board,focus being on the Lira post-election;
Türkiye resumes interventions to support lira as rout deepens.
Türkiye's state lenders re-entered the foreign currency market Monday to shore up the lira as the currency's decline intensified after a holiday.
State banks had sold around $1 billion by midday to try and keep the lira from breaking much past 26.07 per dollar, the traders said. The currency is currently trading at 26.0620 per dollar.
Türkiye's state banks have not commented in any way on their return to interventions in the foreign exchange market.
Interventions were expected to stop after the appointment of a new economy team, which made it clear it favored curbing dollar sales hence letting the markets set the currency value.
However, the currency’s decline accelerated and reached almost 10% after the central bank raised its benchmark one-week repo rate to 15% from 8.5% on June 22, well below expectations for normalization of an interest-rate policy based on ultra-low borrowing costs.
The lira has dropped as much as 28% this year,but as we all know,tides and ebbs go with the wind.
Its time to use a scalpel as we mark the 2nd half of the financial year,lest we end up being in the garrotte.
Nice week ahead.
Andy Warr,
TophatFinanceGroup.
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Earlier:
2023, June, 30, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN GAS WITHOUT EUROPE
In 2021, Russia pumped about 150 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas to Europe — more than enough to satisfy the combined annual consumption of Germany, France and Austria. Europe represented two-thirds of the country’s gas exports including flows of liquified natural gas.
2023, June, 23, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN FLOATING NUCLEAR EXPORTS
Rosatom is already in the process of constructing four floating power units for the Baimskaya ore zone which highlights floating nuclear power plants' ability to be transported to hard-to-reach areas.
2023, June, 2, 06:55:00
RUSSIAN NUCLEAR CHANGES
“Over the next 10 years there will be around a dozen units, which will need to be decommissioned. These are RBMK units. Some of them may have their operating loves slightly extended, but the vast majority will have to be decommissioned, as they say, in real time. Therefore, we need to build 17 units by 2035." Likhachev said
2023, April, 28, 06:30:00
RUSSIAN ARCTIC SMR
Rosatom said that the design met "all post-Fukushima safety requirements for the modern NPP design - this is a compact modular nuclear power plant, featuring reduced construction time compared with large nuclear power plants".
2023, April, 28, 06:25:00
RUSSIAN TEMPORARY ENERGY CONTROL
Russia has taken control of other energy assets owned by Western investors since the war started.
2023, April, 21, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN STABLE PLASMA
It is the first new thermonuclear plant to be built in Russia in the last 20 years. The facility supports the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) under construction in France.
2023, April, 21, 06:30:00
RUSSIA INFLATION SLOWDOWN
Annual inflation in Russia slowed to 3.51% in March 2023 from 10.99% in February, reaching its lowest level since July 2020.
