RUSSIAN OIL, GAS FOR CHINA

S&P Global - December 13, 2024 - Russia is poised to increase its energy exports, primarily oil and gas, to China in 2025 to sustain the ongoing war, said Wu Dahui, deputy dean of Tsinghua University's Russian Institute Dec. 11.

"It is unlikely that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be reached in 2025, and the pattern of alternating between conflict and negotiation is expected to become the norm next year," Wu told S&P Global Commodity Insights, adding that this situation will compel Russia to depend on exports to China. The trade value is projected to rise next year as counterparties find ways to circumvent sanctions and streamline the payment process, he noted.

Wu is a leading expert on Russian studies in China. The Russian Institute at Tsinghua University, one of China's premier institutions, was established to explore strategic bilateral needs while promoting cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.

"Trump's approach to resolving the conflict fundamentally differs from Putin's objectives, particularly regarding NATO, sanctions and territorial claims, making it too complex to achieve any actual peace agreement in the short term," Wu said in Beijing during the International Energy Executive Forum 2024.

Consequently, Russia will increasingly rely on China and boost energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas, in 2025, he said.

President Vladimir Putin emphasized at the 15th Russia's Calling forum held in Moscow Dec. 5 that regardless of how the global situation evolves, Russia will steadfastly promote its relationship with China, which has always been a crucial long-term economic and trade partner, according to the Chinese government-backed Xinhua news agency.

Payment issue solved

Wu noted that settlement issues have been a barrier to bilateral trade between Russia and China, leading to delays in some product payments in 2024.

Over January-November, bilateral trade reached $222.78 billion, a 2.1% increase year on year, according to the latest data from China's customs.

"The recent sanctions on Gazprombank have dealt a blow to Russia's energy trade, but new channels have been identified to resolve payment issues, which will support [Russia-China] trade next year," Wu added, without providing further details on these new channels.

Washington in November sanctioned Gazprombank, the last major financial institution exempt from penalties and a key handler of payments for Russian oil and gas, aiming to stem Kremlin's income from energy exports.

Some international private trading companies said they had to seek new payment channels to purchase Russian oil as Chinese banks refused to issue letters of credit to Gazprombank after the sanctions.

However, independent refining sources -- the key end-users of Russian crude -- said the sanctions have not impacted their crude procurements as they pay suppliers in cash in yuan. Their Russian counterparts accept payments in yuan, they said.

The primary entities utilizing Gazprombank for gas payments include Central European countries such as Hungary and Austria. Even if payments are blocked, gas can still flow, according to international trading sources.

Russia to become top gas supplier

Russia's natural gas supply to China is expected to increase by 8 Bcm from 2024, reaching 38 Bcm in 2025.

This will position Russia as China's top supplier, as the China-Russia eastern route gas pipeline was commissioned Dec. 2 and is set to reach its designed transportation capacity in 2025.

State-run Russian company Gazprom has a 30-year gas sales and purchase agreement with China National Petroleum Corp. to supply 38 Bcm/year of natural gas via pipeline. This volume is anticipated to surpass supplies from Turkmenistan, which stood at approximately 33 Bcm/year, according to data from Commodity Insights.

Due to its geographical proximity, Russia capitalizes on oil and gas pipelines to supply China, making its supplies nearly exclusive compared to other suppliers that rely solely on seaborne shipments.

In February 2022, Russia and China signed a contract to deliver an additional 10 Bcm/year of gas to China via the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline, also known as the Far East pipeline, which is expected to be operational by 2027.

Russia ranks as the third-largest LNG supplier to China in the seaborne market, with shipments totaling 6.74 million mt in January-October, accounting for 10.6% of the country's total LNG imports, despite a 2.8% year-on-year decline.

Russia has been China's top crude supplier to take 19.8% market share in the first 10 months of 2024, according to Chinese customs. During this period, China imported 2.17 million b/d of Russian crude, up 2.2% year on year, despite the country's total crude oil inflows falling 3.4%.

State-run Rosneft has term deals with CNPC to supply about 800,000 b/d of crude, comprising 200,000 b/d via Kazakhstan through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline under a bilateral state agreement and 600,000 b/d of ESPO Blend via the Skovorodino-Mohe pipeline.

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