2024-02-21 06:40:00
GLOBAL ENERGY INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES 2024
By STEPHANE BILODEAU Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, Novacab Inc.
ENERGYCENTRAL - Jan 8, 2024 - The year 2024 is projected to be a potential turning point for the power industry, as it could witness a significant shift towards renewable energy. The Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project, funded by the UK Government's Department for Energy Security, has conducted research in collaboration with the University of Exeter and University College London, which indicates that solar energy could potentially become the primary source of power globally in the next two decades. The EEIST study is based on data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting models that determine the dominant zero-carbon power sources globally. The trajectory of current policies has set in motion a technological tipping point, where solar energy will gradually dominate global electricity markets without further climate policies.
Another report by Bloomberg suggests that clean energy and electric cars are hitting tipping points for global mass adoption. In 2023, 25 governors committed to installing a total of 20 million electric heat pumps in their states by 2030, quadrupling the current nationwide total of 4.8 million. By mid-2023, more than 125 US cities and counties had adopted policies that require or encourage new and existing buildings to transition to electric heat pump systems. It’s reasonable to expect a similar EV tipping point in the U.S. and worldwide since most impediments are universal: insufficient chargers, high sticker prices, and a lack of consumer awareness. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) will continue accelerating in 2024, driven by declining battery costs, supportive government policies, and increasing consumer demand.
So, let's look at some of the risks and opportunities that add up and could impact 2024. First, here are some of them. That is plenty of work on the table!
Risks:
- Carbon emissions: The energy industry is under pressure to reduce carbon emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources. This requires significant investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and carbon capture technologies.
- New investment and value pools: Energy investments may need to grow 4% a year to support the energy transition, with new technologies capturing more than 65% of the investments to 2035.
- Energy technologies go from niche to mainstream: The growth in sustainable fuels is driven by the decarbonization ambition in much of the latest regulations, recent investments, and technological advancement. The EEIST study confirms that the growth of solar energy in the energy mix will impact each and every year in the meantime, starting from 2024. This data-driven model of technology and economics suggests that solar will dominate even if there is no support from more ambitious climate policies. However, four "barriers" could hinder this transition: creating stable power grids, financing solar in developing economies, ensuring the capacity of supply chains, and overcoming political resistance from regions that lose jobs.
- Scaling CCUS: Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) have the potential to contribute towards reducing carbon emissions. However, it is projected that CCUS will only have a minor impact and far away in the future, potentially reaching around 2-4 Gt by 2050. This might be due to the lack of clarity on commercially viable business models of CCUS relative to other decarbonization methods, as well as the development of relevant regulations. It is important to address these uncertainties and not invest all our eggs in CCUS, while it doesn't appear to be an efficient breakthrough in reducing carbon emissions. Otherwise, we risk wasting time and money on a solution that may not have a significant impact and not investing in more tangible and proven solutions.
Earlier:
2024, February, 16, 06:55:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 2024: +2.2 MBD
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 2.2 mb/d.
2024, February, 16, 06:40:00
GLOBAL CLEAN NUCLEAR POWER
"Those countries that opt to use nuclear energy or support its use recognise its potential as a clean energy source that can reduce dependence on fossil fuels, to address the climate crisis and improve global energy security," a ministerial communiqué released at the end of the event said.
2024, February, 2, 06:45:00
GLOBAL NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE
For nuclear power to live up to the current hype it is getting, it needs to fully address its perennial issues and problems, and so far it has not done so.
2024, February, 2, 06:30:00
GLOBAL CLIMATE NONSENSE
In the real world, climate has changed numerous times, often dramatically, sometimes catastrophically, and always naturally. Multiple ice ages and interglacial periods, Roman and Medieval warm periods, a Little Ice Age, major floods, droughts and dust bowls all actually happened – long before fossil fuels.
2024, January, 29, 06:25:00
GLOBAL NUCLEAR RECORD
While global growth in electricity demand eased slightly to 2.2% in 2023 due to falling electricity consumption in advanced economies, it is projected to accelerate to an average of 3.4% from 2024 through to 2026.
2024, January, 11, 06:40:00
GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION & POVERTY
Energy poverty has spread through industries heavily dependent on energy, resulting in the loss of jobs and the relocation of industries to countries more concerned about economic development than reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
2023, November, 17, 06:15:00
GLOBAL CLIMATE OXYMORONS AND OTHER MORONS
Oxymoron: (Merriam-Webster) : a combination of contradictory or incongruous words (such as cruel kindness) broadly : something (such as a concept) that is made up of contradictory or incongruous elements
