2024-04-12 06:30:00
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES WILL UP
BLOOMBERG - Apr 10, 2024 - European natural gas edged higher, with the fuel expected to be more expensive through next winter amid persistent uncertainty about supply risks, including remaining flows from Russia.
Benchmark futures fluctuated between gains and losses Wednesday. The contract has traded in a relatively narrow range for the past month, after slumping in February to the lowest since 2021. In recent weeks, heightened tensions in the Middle East have provided upward pressure.
Russia’s gas-transit agreement with Ukraine also expires at the end of the year, and there’s little clarity as of now if these volumes will still find their way to Europe.
The forward curve now shows prices for the next year are higher than they were a month ago.
“There’s always supply risk, still related to Russia, and the ending of the transit agreement with Ukraine, which would twist the balance,” said Frederic Barnaud, chief commercial officer at Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH.
“There’s also the possibility of more sanctions on Russia, and we are still at war,” he said in an interview on the sidelines of the FT Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland. Recent Russian attacks on gas storage in western Ukraine highlight the supply risks, he added.
Europe has managed to meet most of its energy needs without its usual pipeline supplies from Russia during the past two years. Storage sites are full and liquefied natural gas import infrastructure is in place.
Still, the last two winters were mild, and the market remains prone to high volatility and reactivity to supply disruption. Reliance on global LNG means outages at production plants thousands of miles away can also impact European gas prices.
“There are still big question marks about next winter,” said Marco Saalfrank, head of continental Europe merchant trading at Swiss utility and trader Axpo Solutions AG, in an interview. “A lot can happen and clearly it can change the situation in Europe fairly quickly.”
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, advanced 1.73% to €27.82 a megawatt-hour by 10:07 a.m. in Amsterdam.
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