RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS UP

S&P Global - October 02, 2025 - Russian crude exports in September rose to their highest in over a year, amid growing international pressure on buyers of Russian barrels and drone attacks on refining capacity.

Russian-origin crude liftings from Russian ports reached 3.88 million b/d, the highest since April 2024.

Deliveries to India jumped 29% month over month to 1.73 million b/d, and those to Turkey rose 11% to 375,000 b/d, while exports to China fell 12% to 1.12 million b/d.

Alongside sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refining infrastructure and ongoing maintenance, international pressure on Russian exports is mounting.

There has been considerable discussion about the impact of secondary sanctions by the US on India over its purchases of Russian oil. G7 finance ministers have agreed to maximize pressure on Russia's oil exports at an online meeting on Oct. 1, the ministers said in a statement, targeting those continuing to increase their purchases of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine.

"We agreed that now is the time to maximize pressure on Russia's oil exports, a major source of its revenue. We will target those who are continuing to increase their purchases of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine and those that are facilitating circumvention," the G7 ministers said in the statement.

The G7 finance ministers' comments came after the EU, the UK and other G7 countries, including Japan, lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60/b in September from $60/b.

Effective Sept. 3, the lower EU cap marked the first revision to a G7-wide threshold imposed in December 2022. It followed months of failed lobbying for the US to support a coordinated G7-wide policy change, and has splintered sanctions policy among the alliance.

A July statement from the European Council announced a ban on refined products made from Russian crude in third countries, pledging to prevent Russia's crude oil from reaching the EU market "through the back door."

The discount of Urals crude on a FOB basis at Primorsk to Dated Brent at an average of $11.48/b in September, down 4% month over month and well below a post-invasion average of $21.57/b.

Refining under fire

Seaborne flows of Russian oil products in September fell to their lowest since the war started. Product exports in September fell 15% month over month to 1.87 million b/d, CAS data showed.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure intensified in August and September, leading to a significant decline in Russia's refined product exports.

Russian refinery downtime reached an estimated 1.86 million b/d as of Sept. 19, with multiple key facilities remaining offline.

Russia will extend its gasoline export ban and partially restrict its diesel shipments to combat mounting energy security concerns over drone attacks, the country's energy ministry said in a statement.

The damage has not been limited to refineries. Drones also hit fuel loading facilities at the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea. Loading operations have been reinstated, but two tankers, the Kusto and the Cai Yun, which were berthed in Primorsk at the time and were both damaged, remain anchored there, according to CAS.

It has deepened a fuel crisis, as a host of refineries remain offline following repeated Ukrainian drone strikes, while demand has been seasonally strong, and the industry is considering different options for mitigating the shortages.

Between June 28 and Sept. 22, Russia closed 360 retail stations, or 2.6% of the total, according to OMT-Consult, a Moscow-based think tank. The trend has mostly affected southern regions, where up to 14% of retail stations have suspended operations, and this figure is reaching 50% in the annexed Crimea, according to analysts' calculations.

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