NATURAL GAS : INTERNAL LATTICE OF ENERGY
November has had a flurry of activities through the NaturalGas markets historically.The pricing indicates a slip down further on the benchmark despite a cold start to the winter heating season.
This year the month has two thumbs up for peace is lurking in the air.
Front-month futures on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) are trading at the lowest for more than 18 months around €29 per megawatt hour down from more than €58 at one point in February.
Traders and investors have reacted to details of the U.S./Russia peace plan, details of which were briefed to the media on November 21, causing prices to close below €30 for the first time since May 2024.
The plan states “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy” and specifically “the lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis”.
It should be observed that Natural Gas forms the internal lattice within the energy complex.
Asian customers will be able to receive gas in form of LNG from Russia hence freeing up more LNG from 3rd parties for delivery bringing a balance in pricing to participants in Europe.
Downward trend on the front month have been ongoing for the past 9 months,only briefly being interrupted during the Israel & Iran war in June.
On the Oil Market tabs,white smoke bellowing signs of peace have exerted necessary pressure hence suppressing ICE BRENT prices to $62/bbl with speculations of a further downside towards sub $60/bbl on the deck of cards.
On the WTI CrudeOil,as I write,prices are treading at $58.69/bbl after a kiss on the $60/bbl price mark.Natural Gas trading at $4.550/MMBtu.
Moscow and Beijing are looking into a boost of Oil exports after a conclusive bilateral energy Forum in Beijing,both authorities confirming expansive talks on the Export threshold to China via Kazakhstan;in addition to the 1.4 million b/d seaborne and 0.7 million b/d direct pipeline flows.
On the Metals portfolio, US Copper Stocks are hitting the greens with favorable arbitrage for copper has led to inventories of the red metal held in warehouses approved by the US Comex exchange exceeding 400,000 short tonnes for the first time in history, with futures still $250/mt above LME prices.
As we close up the year,let's all be mindful of the observance and synchronisation with nature as we all are elements within this cosmic realm.
Regards from the desk and many blessings in your endeavours.
Andy Warr,
TophatFinanceGroup.
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