RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE ANEW

S&P GLOBAL - March 17, 2025 - Talk of resuming Russian gas deliveries to Germany via either a repaired Nord Stream pipeline or the undamaged string of Nord Stream 2 would be the "wrong direction" of discussion, German economy minister Robert Habeck said March 17.

Speaking ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels, Habeck also warned against swapping a previous dependence on Russian gas with a new dependence on US LNG.

"As the Ukrainians are still under the aggression of Russia, talking about the potential of Nord Stream 2 or Nord Stream 1 -- if it's going to be repaired -- is completely the wrong direction of discussion," Habeck said.

"We have to support Ukraine," he said, adding that the focus should be on phasing out fossil fuel imports and prioritizing the build-out of renewables.

"We have every reason to not trust the Russians," Habeck said, adding that a new dependency on the US could also be seen as a threat.

"In Germany, we were dependent on Russia and we had to pay a high price to overcome this dependency," he said. "It would be wrong to answer one dependency with another. That means we have to move away from fossil fuels."

Habeck's comments come after Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 13 said that if Moscow could agree with Washington on a new form of energy cooperation, additional Russian gas supply to Europe could be provided.

"This will benefit Europe because it will receive cheap Russian gas," Putin was quoted as saying by the Tass news agency.

Peace talks

Peace talks between the US and Russia over Ukraine have led to renewed speculation about a return of large-scale Russian gas exports to Europe.

There have also been reports that Nord Stream 2 could be taken under new ownership with a view to allowing Russian gas to flow via the undamaged string of the link.

Nord Stream 2 -- designed to send 55 Bcm/year of Russian gas to Germany -- never started commercial operations despite construction work on the two-string pipeline being completed in September 2021.

One of the strings of Nord Stream 2 was then hit by a sabotage attack in September 2022, rendering it unusable along with both strings of the parallel Nord Stream pipeline.

Putin has repeatedly said that the undamaged string of Nord Stream 2 could begin operations quickly to supply gas to Europe.

However, the pipeline and its operator remain uncertified after Germany suspended the certification process in February 2022, just before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

After the halt in the certification process for Nord Stream 2, Russian gas deliveries to Europe continued to be gradually reduced, with flows halted via the Yamal-Europe pipeline and deliveries cut via Ukraine through 2022.

Gazprom then began to cut exports via the first Nord Stream system in June 2022, citing maintenance issues with turbines at the Portovaya compressor station, before stopping Nord Stream flows completely at the end of August.

The sabotage attacks that followed in late September 2022 rendered both Nord Stream strings and one of the Nord Stream 2 strings unusable.

European buyers of Russian gas were forced to buy replacement gas to make up for the shortfall to meet their supply obligations, with prices rising to record highs in August 2022.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price at an all-time high of Eur319.98/MWh on Aug. 26, 2022.

Prices remain relatively high, with Platts assessing the TTF month-ahead price on March 14 at Eur42.22/MWh.

LNG imports

Nord Stream 2 was one of the most controversial energy infrastructure projects ever developed in Europe, with the US, Ukraine and many countries in central and eastern Europe arguing that it would increase Europe's gas dependence on one source and one supply route.

The German economy ministry said March 3 that Germany was now totally independent of Russian gas.

"Following the Russian war of aggression, Germany has made enormous efforts to make its gas infrastructure more resilient and to diversify it," a ministry spokesperson said.

"No Russian gas is supplied via our German LNG terminals."

Germany reacted quickly in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, deploying three floating LNG terminals at Wilhelmshaven (Hoegh Esperanza), Brunsbuttel (Hoegh Gannet) and Lubmin (Neptune) between December 2022 and March 2023.

The FSRU at Lubmin was moved in the summer of 2024 to Mukran to form a two-FSRU terminal together with Energos Power, though the latter has now been removed from the terminal.

Two final FSRUs are still set to be deployed in Germany -- one at Stade (Energos Force) and a second at Wilhelmshaven (Excelsior).

While Germany has not imported any LNG directly from Russia, it is possible that regasified Russian LNG landed at terminals in the Netherlands and Belgium could end up in the German market.

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