GLOBAL OIL DEMAND +1.3 MBD

OPEC - Apr 14, 2025 - OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 

Oil Market Highlights

Crude Oil Price Movements

In March, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $2.81, or 3.7%, m-o-m, to average $74.00/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $3.48, or 4.6%, m-o-m, to average $71.47/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $3.27, or 4.6%, m-o-m, to average $67.94/b. The GME Oman front-month contract fell by $4.78, or 6.2%, m-o-m, to average $72.50/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread narrowed by 21¢, m-o-m, to average $3.53/b. The forward curve of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI strengthened in March, m-o-m, and the nearest-month time spreads moved into stronger backwardation. This reflects traders' optimism about the supply/demand balance outlook. However, the GME Oman and Dubai price structures flattened compared to January and February levels, but the nearest time spreads remained in firm backwardation. Speculative selling in the oil futures market eased in March, as hedge funds and other money managers rebuilt part of their bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, after major selloffs seen in the previous month.

World Economy

The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics. Consequently, the global economic growth forecasts are revised down slightly to 3.0% for 2025, and to 3.1% for 2026. US economic growth forecasts are revised down to 2.1% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts are revised down slightly to 1% for 2025 and to 0.9% for 2026. The Eurozone’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is lowered marginally to 0.8% but remains at 1.1% for 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are revised down slightly to 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively. India’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is lowered slightly to 6.3% for 2025 but remains at 6.5% for 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for 1Q25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 mb/d in 2025. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 is revised down slightly to about 1.3 mb/d. The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 also revised down slightly to about 0.9 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina as the key drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC dropped by 37 tb/d in March, m-o-m, averaging about 41.02 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In March, refinery margins dropped in all reported trading hubs. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), all product crack spreads declined except for gasoline as some refining capacities returned online from maintenance, leading to higher product availability. In Rotterdam, product markets weakened across the board despite a decline in total product ARA inventories. This downturn was the most pronounced in the gasoil margin performance amid weaker fundamentals. In Singapore, higher product arrivals from the Middle East along with ample regional product supplies, lower-than-expected regional gasoline demand and firm jet fuel exports from China weighed on Asian margins.

Tanker Market

Developments regarding sanctions and tariffs have kept spot freight rates trading close to the five-year average, although below the robust levels seen in 2022 and 2023. VLCC rates softened in March after sanction-related uncertainties hiked the long-haul demand in the month before. VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route fell by 3%, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route dropped 6%, m-o-m. Meanwhile, spot freight rates in the Suezmax market edged higher, rising 5%, m-o-m, on the West Africa-to-USGC route. In the Aframax market, cross-Med spot freight rates rose 4%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates rose with East of Suez rates up 15% ahead of holidays in the region. West of Suez rates were up 8%, amid a recovery in flows out of the US Gulf Coast.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In March, US crude imports remained below 6 mb/d for the second month in a row, averaging 5.9 mb/d. US crude exports were above 4 mb/d for the second month in a row, averaging 4.1 mb/d. US product imports were up 2%, m-o-m, at 1.8 mb/d, while US product exports were stable at the top of their five-year range, averaging 6.4 mb/d. With full data available for the year, OECD Europe crude imports were stable in 2024, averaging 8.5 mb/d in annual terms. Product imports into the region rose by 7%, y-o-y, to average 2.8 mb/d, supported by higher outflows of diesel and jet fuel. OECD Europe product exports were down by 6%, y-o-y, in 2024, amid a sharp decline in gasoline exports. Japan's crude imports fell in February, down by 10%, m-o-m, with the winding down of winter demand. Japan’s product flows also declined, m-o-m, with imports down 7% and exports slipping 4%. China’s crude imports averaged 11.2 mb/d in February, broadly in line with last year’s levels. Product imports into China were up by 8%, m-o-m, in February, supported primarily by LPG. India’s crude imports averaged just under 5.0 mb/d in February, representing a negligible m-o-m decline, but were up by almost 10% y-o-y. India’s products imports slipped by almost 6%, m-o-m, amid declines in fuel oil and LPG, while product exports jumped by 15%, m-o-m, to reach a five-month high of 1.6 mb/d.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary February 2025 data shows that OECD commercial inventories stood at 2,746 mb, around 16.1 mb lower, m-o-m. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 173.5 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks went up by 11.1 mb, m-o-m, while products stocks fell by 27.3 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stood at 1,322 mb, which is 125.9 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,425 mb, some 47.6 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.3 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 60.9 days, which is 1.7 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.6 mb/d in 2025. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024. Demand for DoC crude in 2026 is revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.8 mb/d. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the 2025 forecast.

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