2025-04-21 06:55:00
POSSIBILITIES FOR RUSSIAN GAS TO EUROPE
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies - March 2025 -
No Way Back? Challenges to Russian Pipeline Gas in Europe Make Near-Term Rebound Unlikely
The potential for a ‘rebound’ or ‘return’ of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European market has gained significant traction in the mainstream media.
The challenges that must be overcome include:
Transportation capacity: Both lines of Nord Stream 1 are damaged, Nord Stream 2 is unable to launch without approval from the German authorities, and the Yamal-Europe pipeline is closed to transit via Poland due to sanctions. Transit via Ukraine halted on 31 December 2024 and will not restart in the absence of a durable and lasting political settlement to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This leaves only Turkish Stream, which is currently operating close to full capacity.
Spot trading: Gazprom halted sales via its Electronic Sales Platform in October 2021 and withdrew from its downstream European trading subsidiaries in April 2022. Re-establishing subsidiaries may not be possible if arbitration awards remain outstanding and Gazprom assets in Europe remain at risk of seizure for enforcement of awards.
Long-term contracts: Gazprom has already seen several long-term contracts expire without renewal since April 2022, while other have been terminated either following the conclusion of arbitration or unilaterally. Other contracts have been suspended following the refusal of Gazprom’s counterparties to accede to the demand to pay in rubles or following the closure of pipeline transportation capacity routes. Both the ruble payment and supply shortfall issues have resulted in arbitration cases, and Gazprom’s approach at present is to file anti-suit injunctions with Russian arbitration courts, rather than pay awards made to its European counterparties in European arbitration courts. This implies that once Gazprom’s European contracts have expired or been terminated, European buyers are unlikely to sign new terms with Gazprom.
What’s left? As a result, Gazprom has been left with just one delivery route to the European market (the Turkish Stream pipeline and its onward connections from the Turkey-Hungary border as far north as Hungary and Slovakia), and roughly 15 Bcma of long-term contracts from a portfolio that was an estimated 150 Bcma prior to 2022.
To conclude, it is unlikely that the challenges relating to delivery routes, spot trading, and long-term contracts will be overcome in order to enable the volume of Russian pipeline supply to Europe to ‘rebound’ from its current level, especially if it is to happen before the wave of new LNG supply renders Europe a much more competitive market than when Gazprom mostly withdrew from it in 2022-24.
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Earlier:
2025, April, 16, 06:35:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE ANEW
The French state partly owns Engie, which used to be among the biggest buyers of Gazprom's gas. Holleaux said Russia could supply around 20-25% of EU needs, down from 40% before the war.
2025, April, 8, 06:25:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR SLOVAKIA
Gazprom began supplying gas to Slovakia again at the beginning of February, using volumes given up by Hungary on the TurkStream pipeline, SPP said last month. Volumes were due to double from April, but no amounts were given.
2025, March, 19, 06:50:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE ANEW
There have also been reports that Nord Stream 2 could be taken under new ownership with a view to allowing Russian gas to flow via the undamaged string of the link.
2025, March, 7, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE
While pipeline gas supplies from Russia cover less than 5% of Europe’s fuel needs after most major routes have been closed since 2022, the nation remains the second largest supplier of LNG to the EU. Purchases hit a record last year, with Spain, France and Belgium being the biggest buyers.
2024, November, 26, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE AGAIN
Gazprom, opens new tab said it would send 42.4 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday, the same volume it has shipped each day since Nov. 12.
2024, November, 19, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE
Russian gas is still being sold in significant volumes to Slovakia and Hungary, as well as to the Czech Republic which does not have a direct contract. Smaller volumes are going to Italy and Serbia.
2024, November, 8, 06:40:00
RUSSIAN GAS FOR EUROPE
"We are ready to supply [gas], though little depends on us here. This is why agreements on that should probably be made directly by consumers and the country ensuring transit," Novak said on the sidelines of an event in Sochi.
2024, June, 5, 06:50:00
RUSSIAN LNG FOR EUROPE
With piped gas supplies cut off after the war, imports of LNG from Moscow increased to around 18 billion cubic meters in 2023 from less than 14 billion cubic meters before the attack, according to EU data.
