GLOBAL MARKETS : UNFRIVOLOUS RECIPROCITY

August has had a bunch of unfrivolous activities within the Geopolitical space with the zenith being the meeting between Russian President Putin & US President Trump in Alaska.This has brought about a significant shift on the Geopolitical scales as a balance is being sought after with regards to the situation in Ukraine.

Performance on the Oil Majors has been one to ponder on as shifts in pricing has been dependent majorly on Russian Oil supply point in case being India.

Discounted Russian Crude powers 38% of the imports fueling a $27B quarterly export surge,reshaping the fiscal and monetary dynamics and stabilisation of their local currency.Currently Benchmark BRENT Crude is trading at $66.19/bbl(+0.91%)with WTI Crude trading at $63.20/bbl(+0.64%) signalling more bullish outlook in the short term its speculators moves on the bearish front standing at $55/bbl.

Natural Gas is at a focal price point of $3/mmBtu with biasness on the higher price point dependent on a break of the $3.15/mmBtu,alternatively a break of the $2.75/mmBtu for a bearish run towards the $2.4/mmBtu pricing.

On the US Equities Front ;

As we head into a period of higher inflation & Weaker growth,hedge funds/large speculators continue to press bets against Russell 2000 #RT2000 .Net futures positioning is now more negative than lowest point in 2022.

Artificial Intelligence is still being put into test as tendency of higher expenditure on te infrastructure means higher demand as we wait on the NVIDIA earnings report data on August 27th.A reduced systemic risk is also evident in terms of the spending structure as majority of companies preference towards the privatecredit facilities rather than traditional banking loans.Year to Date #YTD ,infrastructure and private credit have led private market returns with infrastructure outperforming for the past 3 years despite the higher for longer rates & challenges within the IPOs & M&A fronts.

Markets have started becoming forward looking with regards to the tariffs data with respect to the deregulation,earnings and rate cuts as key variables.

On the FX Front ; I'd like to point out a good opportunity on the SouthAfrican Rand #ZAR against the US Dollar.Key pricing point being at 17.63 with a good bullish opportunity towards the 18/19 handle.Tread with subtlety as this is one for the books.Emerging currencies are the diamond in the rough this cyclical quarter that we are in.

It may seem that what's good for the goose is also good for the gander.The sands of time shall be our guide as we progress towards the fruitful end of the year.

Much blessings from the desk,

Andy Warr,

TophatFinanceGroup.

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