IMF - Some of the negative effects of the changing external environment are already being felt in South Africa despite its economic resilience.
U.S. EIA - Crude oil surpassed hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) to become the largest U.S. petroleum export, with 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) of exports in the first half of 2018. U.S. crude oil exports increased by 787,000 b/d, or almost 80%, from the first half of 2017 to the first half of 2018 and set a new monthly record of 2.2 million b/d in June.
OPEC - Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
IAEA - Overall, the new projections suggest that nuclear power may struggle to maintain its current place in the world’s energy mix. In the low case to 2030, the projections show nuclear electricity generating capacity falling by more than 10% from a net installed capacity of 392 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) at the end of 2017. In the high case, generating capacity increases 30% to 511 GW(e), a drop of 45 GW(e) from last year’s projection. Longer term, generating capacity declines to 2040 in the low case before rebounding to 2030 levels by mid-century, when nuclear is seen providing 2.8% of global generating capacity compared with 5.7% today.
WNN - A draft updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) approved by South Africa's cabinet on 22 August sees the country's nuclear capacity remaining at its current 1830 MWe over the period to 2030. Energy Minister Jeff Radebe yesterday released the plan for public comment.
IMF - The Mozambican economy is recovering gradually. Real GDP growth reached 3¾ percent in 2017—¾ percentage point higher than projected by Fund staff in the last Article IV consultation—supported by a stronger-than-expected recovery in agriculture and significantly higher mining production.
IMF - Amid a marked growth deceleration, some of South Africa’s economic and social achievements after the end of apartheid have recently unwound. While the economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, gaps in physical infrastructure and education create large productivity differentials across sectors. Low consumer and business confidence has dampened productivity growth. Fast growing debt has constrained policy space. As a result, per-capita growth has turned negative, the poverty rate stands at around 40 percent, unemployment has crept up to 27 percent—almost twice that level for the youth—and income inequality is one of the highest globally.
FT - Anadarko has estimated the reserves in its Area 1 acreage off the coast of Mozambique at about 75tn cubic feet, implying a resource life of about 120 years at the initial production rate of 12.88m tonnes of LNG per year, but the consortium intends to expand the plant every five years to add more capacity.
IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.
ROSATOM - “Signing the contract opens a new chapter in the partnership between Russia and Zambia. In the nearest future, we plan to start extensive practical works, including engineering surveys at the site of the centre, assessment of nuclear infrastructure and subsequent development plan in accordance with IAEA recommendations as well as global and Russian best practice. Construction of the center will enable the Republic of Zambia to become one of the leading players in nuclear technologies application in the Central and Southern African region”.
IMF - Sub-Saharan Africa is set to enjoy a modest growth uptick, and decisive policies are needed to both reduce vulnerabilities and raise medium-term growth prospects. Average growth in the region is projected to rise from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 3.4 percent in 2018,
FT - The loans bring total Chinese energy finance in Africa since 2000 to $34.8bn. While this is well behind the $69bn lent in Europe and Central Asia, the $62bn in Latin America and the $60bn in Asia over the same period, the 2017 data illustrate Africa’s growing importance.
WNN - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is this week discussing the prospect of closer economic and political ties, including nuclear energy projects, in a number of African countries. Lavrov has so far visited Angola, Namibia, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and will complete his trip to the region in Ethiopia.
TOTAL - Total has signed an agreement to sell a 25% interest in the Exploration Block 11B/12B, offshore South Africa, to Qatar Petroleum. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approval.
EIA - South Africa is one of the world’s leading emitters of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2), ranking fifteenth globally in 2015 and accounting for more than any other country in Africa. In an effort to reduce CO2 emissions, South Africa is planning to diversify its energy portfolio, replacing coal with lower CO2-emitting fuels such as natural gas and renewable sources. The country’s Intended National Determined Contribution, submitted as part of the Paris Agreement, plans for CO2 emissions to peak by 2025, remain flat for a decade, and begin to decline around 2035.