EIA - Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in June, a decrease of almost $3/b from the May average. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $73/b in the second half of 2018 and will average $69/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $6/b lower than Brent prices in the second half of 2018 and $7/b lower in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $87/b encompasses the market expectation for October WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
REUTERS - Venezuela has the ability to boost crude output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by end of the year in its bid to recover lost production, but the oil minister also said on Friday this goal would be “a challenge” for state oil firm PDVSA.
U.S. EIA - Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, in large part because of the heavy oil reserves in the Orinoco Oil Basin. In addition to oil reserves, Venezuela has sizeable natural gas reserves, although the development of natural gas lags significantly behind that of oil. However, in the wake of political and economic instability in the country, crude oil production has dramatically decreased, reaching a multi-decades low in mid-2018.
PLATTS - Venezuela's crude output averaged 1.36 million b/d in May, down from 1.41 million b/d in April, and 1.9 million b/d in May 2017, according to S&P Global Platts. The International Energy Agency said it could fall to 800,000 b/d or even lower next year.
BLOOMBERG - Venezuela wrote to fellow OPEC members urging them to unite against U.S. sanctions, echoing a similar letter from Iran, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
IMF - The fiscal stance is also supportive with the primary deficit projected to widen from 1.7 to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2018, as implied by the budget. GDP growth is projected to accelerate from 1 percent in 2017 to about 2 percent in 2018, driven by private consumption and investment.
NYT - China and India are the biggest buyers of Iranian crude, but they also provide markets for 40 percent of Venezuelan exports, which have been plummeting under the weight of mismanagement, debt and American financial sanctions.
IMF - growth for the region to increase from 1.3 percent in 2017 to 2 percent in 2018. For 2019 growth to continue to pick up to 2.8 percent.
PETROBRAS - Net income attributable to the shareholders of Petrobras was US$ 2,145 million in 1Q-2018, a 51% increase compared to US$ 1,417 million in 1Q-2017. The result improved mainly due to increase in Brent prices and gains with divestments.
SHELL - Shell has signed an agreement to sell its Downstream business in Argentina to Raízen for US$0.95 billion in cash proceeds at completion, subject to customary closing conditions. The sale includes the Buenos Aires Refinery, around 645 retail stations, liquefied petroleum gas, marine fuels, aviation fuels, bitumen, chemicals and lubricants businesses, as well as supply and distribution activities in the country. Additionally, after the transaction closes, the businesses acquired by Raízen will continue their relationships with Shell through various commercial agreements, which represent an estimated value of US$0.3 billion.
REUTERS - “There is growing confidence that the declaration of cooperation will be extended beyond 2018,” Barkindo told. “Russia will continue to play a leading role.”
BLOOMBERG - OPEC said its oil output fell to the lowest in a year last month amid reduced supplies from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, suggesting global markets may tighten sharply later this year.
REUTERS - Exxon along with Petrobras and Qatar Petroleum Intl shelled out 2.8 billion reais ($844 million) for a block in Brazil’s offshore Campos basin as the American oil major seeks to aggressively replace dwindling reserves.
PLATTS - "The increase in competition induced new practices in the market that resulted in imports returning to normal," Petrobras' Jorge Celestino said during a presentation of the company's 2017 financial results.
EIA - Venezuela’s crude oil production has been on a downward trend for two decades, but it has experienced significant decreases over the past two years. Crude oil production in Venezuela decreased from 2.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in January 2016 to 1.6 million b/d in January 2018. A combination of relatively low global crude oil prices and the mismanagement of Venezuela’s oil industry has led to these accelerated declines in production.