The World Economy Year Ahead 2019

IMF - World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019

A Weakening Global Expansion

• The global expansion has weakened. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections.

• The global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 had already been revised downward in the last WEO, partly because of the negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the United States and China earlier that year. The further downward revision since October in part reflects carry over from softer momentum in the second half of 2018—including in Germany following the introduction of new automobile fuel emission standards and in Italy where concerns about sovereign and financial risks have weighed on domestic demand—but also weakening financial market sentiment as well as a contraction in Turkey now projected to be deeper than anticipated.

• Risks to global growth tilt to the downside. An escalation of trade tensions beyond those already incorporated in the forecast remains a key source of risk to the outlook. Financial conditions have already tightened since the fall. A range of triggers beyond escalating trade tensions could spark a further deterioration in risk sentiment with adverse growth implications, especially given the high levels of public and private debt. These potential triggers include a “no-deal” withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union and a greater-than-envisaged slowdown in China.

• The main shared policy priority is for countries to resolve cooperatively and quickly their trade disagreements and the resulting policy uncertainty, rather than raising harmful barriers further and destabilizing an already slowing global economy. Across all economies, measures to boost potential output growth, enhance inclusiveness, and strengthen fiscal and financial buffers in an environment of high debt burdens and tighter financial conditions are imperatives.

 

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2019, January, 23, 11:30:00 GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWTH 2019: 3.5% IMF - The global expansion has weakened. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. Русский | English

2019, January, 21, 11:40:00 CHINA'S GDP GROWTH 6.6% PLATTS - China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's gross domestic product grew 6.6% year on year in 2018, the slowest pace of growth seen since 1990.

2019, January, 9, 10:55:00 GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH 2.9% WBG - Global economic growth is projected to soften from a downwardly revised 3 percent in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 amid rising downside risks to the outlook, the World Bank said on Tuesday. International trade and manufacturing activity have softened, trade tensions remain elevated, and some large emerging markets have experienced substantial financial market pressures.

2018, December, 24, 11:20:00 U.S. GDP UP 3.4% U.S. BEA - Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

2018, December, 5, 09:30:00 JAPAN WILL UP BY 0.9% IMF - The Japanese economy is growing above its estimated potential. After a temporary soft patch early in the year, domestic demand recovered in the second quarter. With external demand expected to remain supportive, and despite recent natural disasters, real GDP growth is projected to remain above trend in 2018 at 1.1 percent.

2018, September, 3, 14:35:00 INDIA'S GDP UP 8.2% REUTERS -India’s annual economic growth surged to a more than two-year high of 8.2 percent in the three months through June, giving Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government a political boost in the final year of his term before elections.

2018, July, 27, 12:35:00 FRANCE'S GDP UP TO 1.8% IMF - Near-term growth prospects remain favorable, although less buoyant than in 2017. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 1.8 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2019, supported by robust investment and solid consumption.