Investors cut their bullish bets on the oil price to the lowest level since OPEC reached a deal to cut output last year, amid continued doubts about the effectiveness of that agreement.

Saudi Arabia’s conventional approach to market management is no longer working: crude has fallen back below $50 a barrel, US shale oil output is again on the rise and Saudi-led Opec, if anything, is worse off than when it agreed the supply deal back in November, having cut volumes for little upside on price.

The resurgence of the US shale industry after the oil slump of 2014 was a key factor in how crude prices fell sharply last week, to back below $50 per barrel. The market is concerned about whether efforts by Opec, the producers’ cartel, to tackle a supply glut by curbing output will be undermined by reinvigorated US shale companies.

U.S. crude CLcv1 rose 2.09 percent to $46.47 per barrel and Brent LCOcv1 was last at $49.45, up 2.21 percent on the day.

"The good news is that the market is moving towards rebalancing," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said at the International Oil Summit in Paris last week. "There has also been a rapid drawdown of floating storage in the first quarter of this year. This is being driven by improving fundamentals and the OPEC deal."

OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia averaged 9.97 million b/d in April, according to the survey, below its quota under the deal of 10.058 million b/d.

One of the highest priorities in Russia's gas export and marketing strategy is establishing its own southern corridor for gas exports to Europe, in competition with the EU-backed project.

Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI) announced today that the international rig count for April 2017 was 956, up 13 from the 943 counted in March 2017, and up 10 from the 946 counted in April 2016. The international offshore rig count for April 2017 was 201, up 4 from the 197 counted in March 2017, and down 19 from the 220 counted in April 2016.

U.S. Rig Count is up 462 rigs from last year's count of 415, with oil rigs up 375, gas rigs up 87, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Canadian Rig Count is up 46 rigs from last year's count of 36, with oil rigs up 16, gas rigs up 31, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 0.

U.S. crude CLc1 fell $2.05 or 4.3 percent to $45.77, by 12:08 p.m. Brent was down $2.07, or 4.1 percent to $48.71.

Morgan Stanley analysts say that while Opec has hit its target by cutting as much as 1.4m barrels a day of output to try and support the market, shipping data suggests the group’s exports have declined by less than 1m b/d since the start of the year.

OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers look likely to extend their agreement to limit supplies beyond its June expiry to help clear a glut, three OPEC delegates said on Thursday, downplaying the chance of additional steps such as a bigger cut.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.7 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $43.8 billion in February, revised. March exports were $191.0 billion, $1.7 billion less than February exports. March imports were $234.7 billion, $1.7 billion less than February imports.

IEA - This sharp slowdown in activity in the conventional oil sector was the result of reduced investment spending driven by low oil prices. It brings an additional cause of concern for global energy security at a time of heightened geopolitical risks in some major producer countries.

The US tally of active drilling rigs increased by 13 to 870 during the week ended Apr. 28, marking the 12th double-digit rise during 15 straight weeks of gains. The count is now up 466 units since the nadir of the drilling downturn on May 20-27, 2016, and at its highest point since Aug. 28, 2015. Since its last decline, the count is up 211 units.