The contango between futures prices in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the average of 2017 has shrunk from $3.75 per barrel in December to $2.50 at the end of February and just $1.65 in recent days.
North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $38/barrel (b) in March, a $6/b increase from February. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $35/b in 2016 and $41/b in 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.
"Everybody is trying to get a big stake in India--it is the biggest growing market in Asia," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at London-based consultancy Energy Aspects.
The world’s biggest energy user increased inbound shipments to 91.1 million metric tons in the first three months of the year, data from the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs showed on Wednesday. That’s equivalent to about 7.34 million barrels a day, 6 percent higher than the previous quarter and 13 percent up from the same period last year. Imports last month fell about 4 percent from February’s record to 7.71 million barrels a day, the third-highest ever.
Lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. are setting aside more money to cover potential loan losses after crude prices fell 61 percent in less than two years.
Gas output from the top seven shale deposits will fall by 1.1 percent to 45.93 billion cubic feet a day from April, the biggest percentage decline since March 2013. The retreat is led by the oil-rich Eagle Ford deposit in Texas and the Niobrara shale in Colorado and neighboring states, where gas is pumped as a byproduct of crude extraction.
В нефтяной отрасли, в прошлом году отмечался прирост добычи нефти и газового конденсата (+1,4 % по сравнению с 2014 г.), был установлен новый национальный рекорд по добыче – 534,1 млн тонн. Благодаря задействованным механизмам льготирования, выросла добыча в Восточной Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке – на 7,8% до 63,5 млн тонн, на континентальном шельфе – на 17,3% до 19 млн тонн, на месторождениях с трудноизвлекаемыми запасами – на 1,2% до 33 млн тонн.
Crude oil production in May from the seven major US shale regions is expected to fall 114,000 b/d month-over-month to 4.84 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR).
The squeeze puts further pressure on the shale industry to sell assets, cut jobs and drilling and shrink capital spending. It also raises the risk that more companies will tip into bankruptcy.
U.S. Rig Count is down 7 rigs from last week to 443, with oil rigs down 8 to 354, and gas rigs up 1 to 89. Canadian Rig Count is down 8 rigs from last week to 41, with oil rigs down 3 to 8, and gas rigs down 5 to 33.