Russian natural gas giant Gazprom believes that winter 2014/2015 may be “colder than usual”.

The Ukraine crisis caused relations between Russia and the EU to fall to their lowest point since the Cold War. But despite the bickering and outright conflicts, both still need each other: Europe relies on Russian gas to keep warm, and Russia in turn needs revenues. With winter on its way and capital flight from Russia reaching dangerous levels, the outlook should draw the EU and Russia back together.

As the European calls for diversification away from Russian sources of natural gas continue in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, a just released study from The Brookings Institution shows that the European Union is likely to be using a lot of Russian gas even by the year 2040.

Europe’s natural gas supply mix likely won’t change much without drastic policy interventions despite recent renewed concern over instability in Ukraine, a new Brookings Institution policy brief concluded. This effectively will ensure a continuing significant market share for Russia, it said.

Bulgaria, Finland and Estonia could suffer major gas shortages if Russia cut off all its gas deliveries for six months, according to a report released Thursday by the European Commission.

Diversification of gas supply has been a strategic priority for the European Union since its dependence on imports began to grow in the early 2000s.

Russian oil giant OAO Rosneft is devising a legal strategy to fight Western sanctions in European courts, according to people familiar with the strategy—a tactic modeled on the so-far successful legal campaign waged by Iran’s Bank Mellat.

Gazprom has said it could shelve its Vladivostok liquefied natural gas project as the Russian state-controlled energy giant focuses on supplying more gas to China by pipeline.

European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger has asked Ukraine and Russia to take part in another round of talks to try to solve a gas pricing row on Oct. 21 in Berlin, a Commission official said on Thursday.

Poland’s ambition to achieve energy independence from Russia is being undermined by drillers giving up on the nation’s shale wells after disappointing results.