Brent crude futures plunged more than 4 percent to near 12-year lows on Friday as the market braced for increased Iranian oil exports, with the lifting of international sanctions possible within days.

Forecast Brent crude oil prices average $40/b in 2016 and $50/b in 2017. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $2/b lower than Brent in 2016 and $3/b lower in 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.

The slowdown has been rapid. As recently as a year ago, US manufacturing production was growing at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent, says Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. By November that had slowed to 0.9 per cent and this year Mr Moutray expects production to grow just 1.4 per cent.

Companies like BP, which said Tuesday it is cutting 4,000 jobs, are slimming down to cope with the slump in oil, whose price has plummeted to its lowest level in 12 years and is not expected to recover significantly for months, possibly years. California-based Chevron said last fall that it would eliminate 7,000 jobs, while rival Shell announced 6,500 layoffs.

“Companies have to be prudent in the face of what’s happening,” says Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of consultancy IHS. “It’s a wrenching period for the industry.”

Crude's collapse from $100 a barrel since mid-2014 has already pummeled Russia, which relies on energy for about half its budget revenues and 40 percent of its exports. The latest slide compounds the problems facing President Vladimir Putin ahead of elections in 2018.

"We are certain the Chinese economy will grow only slowly and that the yuan will depreciate in 2016," said a senior trader with a Shanghai-based fund. "The biggest uncertainty we have is how much the yuan will depreciate, which could revalue metals in China and affect our bets."

The escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is intensifying bilateral market competition, which some observers say eclipses in importance Saudi concern over expansion of supply from North America.

The IPO proposal is consistent with the broader direction of economic reform in the kingdom, including state asset sales and market deregulation, Aramco said. Bringing in investors would also strengthen the company’s focus on long-term growth and the prudent management of its reserves, according to the statement.

Even if E&P clients are able to negotiate more favorable terms for their debt, the industry’s overextended balance sheets will put a cap on activity — even if oil prices rise. On the producer side, companies will most likely de-lever before they drill should some extra cash come in the door. For OFS, building all the new equipment such as walking rigs and big frac spreads to meet strong client demand has some players in this sector significantly over-levered.