Changes to the data in this month’s confirm the direction of travel of the oil market towards balance. The net result of our changes to demand and supply data is that we expect to see global oil stocks increase by 1.3 million b/d in the first half of 2016 followed by a dramatic reduction in the second half of 2016 to 200,000 b/d.

BP’s own forecast shows global energy demand rising one-third higher by 2035 than it is today, which would be like adding the total combined energy demand of the US, the European Union, and Japan. And it’s BP’s expectation that more than half of this demand will be met by oil and gas by 2035.

The stronger crude oil demand outlook is likely the main reason for higher crude prices across the entire futures curve, whereas the near-term supply concerns are putting additional upward pressure on prices for near-term delivery.

Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel.

A global crude oil deficit will develop before the end of this year, the chairman of Facts Global Energy consultancy Fereidun Fesharaki said Monday.

Saudi Arabia is the largest supplier of crude oil to India, where oil demand grew by 5.7% last year and is expected by the International Energy Agency to increase 6.3% this year.

Indian oil demand, meanwhile, grew by 300,000 b/d last year after rising by 100,000-150,000 b/d/year in the previous decade.

Global energy demand between 2014 and 2035 is expected to rise 34%, an average of 1.4%/year, with fossil fuels remaining the dominant form of energy over the period.

The Head of Rosneft noted that the demand for oil and oil products will be growing. The growth has become more diversified - China's role has diminished, but the share of India, other Asian countries and Africa is gradually growing. “More diversified growth seems more resilient, and confirms that many of the mentioned "threats" of reducing the role of oil in the world economy are largely exaggerated”- Sechin said. According to the Head of Rosneft, “an imbalance between oil supply and demand may significantly reduce already by the end of 2016, and by the end of 2017 even lack of oil supply is possible at the market”.

Total petroleum deliveries, a measure of consumer demand, in December rose by 1.1 percent from December 2014 to average nearly 19.7 million barrels per day, according to API’s Monthly Statistical Report for December 2015. These were the highest December deliveries in five years.