Europe’s leaders have long been hoping that U.S. shale gas would help the bloc reduce its reliance on gas from Russia, which provides around a third of the region’s supplies. The ethane from Ineos’s shipment won’t be a substitute for Russian gas, which is mostly methane, but it will help to lower prices in the European market, said Karen Sund, partner at Norway-based Sund Energy consultancy.

“The US has sought to work with Europe to lessen Europe's dependence on Russian energy and, particularly, gas supplies to weaken Russian leverage to use that gas supply for political purposes and has enjoyed some success, and this has been a cooperative venture. Three administrations working in the same direction, many of the same assumptions and people.”

Looking at the outcome of the sensitivities Mr Tomnay offers in closing: “Russia's export strategy will be a key determinant of US LNG export capacity utilisation, but the Russian pursuit of European market share to drive out US LNG from Europe seems either uneconomic and/or impractical under different external conditions. Instead other factors such as the price of US gas, oil and European coal prices will likely be greater determinants of US LNG export capacity utilisation. Subject to these factors alone, average utilisation of US LNG export capacity between 2017-20 could vary from 54-100%. For US LNG exporters, the best thing to happen would be for global coal prices to rise, or for US gas prices to stay low."

The suppliers were chosen after a tender award. The tender covers 2,500 km of large-diameter pipes with a total weight of roughly 2.2mn metric tons. In an announcement on March 11, the consortium said that it had chosen three firms for the supply: Germany-based Europipe for 40% of the required steel pipes; Russia's United Metallurgical Company (OMK) for 33%; and Russian firm Chelyabinsk Pipe-Rolling Plant (Chelpipe) for the remaining 27%.

At low oil prices, customer choice rather than strategic Russian decision-making would allow Russia to retain over 30% of the roughly 490bn m³/yr European market and threaten US LNG export volumes.

European utility company E.ON made a net loss of €7bn during 2015, it announced March 9, with underlying net income of €1.6bn. This was similar to 2014 but it also took an €8.8bn impairment charge mainly related to its struggling generation assets.

Citing his support for development of a competitive natural gas market in Europe, Norway's minister of petroleum and energy, Tord Lien, said a well functioning market in Europe is crucial for the maximisation of Norwegian assets. “Gas is there if Europe needs it.”

With more or less fanfare, several countries in the region have at one time or another announced their intention to become a gas hub. Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania have generally been the most vocal, though neither ever provided the specifics of what their respective hub proposal looks like.

“Russia will have to struggle for its market share one way or another,” said Andrey Polischuk, an oil and gas analyst at Raiffeisenbank AO in Moscow. Gazprom is gaining market muscle due to low oil now but may need changes to keep the price in line with competitors when crude rebounds, he said.

LNG cannot reach every corner of Europe: there may be a lot of under-used capacity in import terminals in the Iberian peninsula but these are not useful for security of supply in mainland Europe except where they have reloading facilities. There is very little transport capacity overland into France.