U.S. oil production decreased on 259,000 barrels per day

Crude oil production in December from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 118,000 b/d to 4.95 million b/d.

Norwegian petroleum and other liquids production, which had been declining since 2001, increased in 2014 and will likely continue increasing in 2015. The production growth in 2014 was mainly the result of new fields coming online, but also included a small increase in output from existing fields. Production has continued to grow in the first half of 2015 and is expected to remain relatively stable over the next few years as growth from new fields balances declines from older fields.

Crude oil production in November from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 93,000 b/d to 5.12 million b/d. That’s back up to the same level forecast for September after a somewhat smaller decline was projected for October.

Results from second-quarter 2015 financial statements of a number of U.S. companies with onshore oil operations suggest continued financial strain for some companies. Low oil prices have significantly reduced cash flow for U.S. oil producers, and to adjust to lower cash flows, companies have reduced capital expenditures and raised more cash from debt and equity.

Total petroleum deliveries (a measure of demand) in August rose by 0.8 percent from August 2014 to average nearly 19.6 million barrels per day, according to API’s Monthly Statistical Report for August 2015. August crude oil production was the highest level for the month and the highest year to date level in 43 years, since 1972.

Crude oil production in October from seven major U.S. shale plays is expected to drop 80,000 b/d to 5.21 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report.

Although unrestricted exports of U.S. crude oil would leave global crude prices either unchanged or falling slightly compared to parallel cases that maintain current restrictions on crude oil exports, other factors affecting global supply and demand will largely determine whether global crude prices remain close to their current level, as in EIA's Low Oil Price case, or rise along a path closer to the Reference case trajectory. Global price drivers, as well as resource and technology outcomes, will affect growth in U.S. crude oil production regardless of decisions about future U.S. crude oil export policies.

Global liquids production continues to outpace consumption, leading to strong inventory builds throughout the forecast period. Global oil inventory builds in the second quarter of 2015 averaged 2.7 million b/d, rising by 0.8 million b/d compared with the first quarter of the year. The pace of inventory builds is expected to slow in the second half of the year, to roughly 1.8 million b/d. In 2016, inventory builds are expected to slow to an average of 0.9 million b/d.

U.S. crude oil production is projected to increase from an average of 8.7 million b/d in 2014 to 9.4 million b/d in 2015 and then decrease to 9.0 million b/d in 2016. The forecast is about 0.1 million b/d lower and 0.4 million b/d lower for 2015 and 2016. The decrease in the crude oil production forecast reflects a lower oil price outlook that will reduce expected oil-directed rig counts and drilling and well-completion activities throughout the forecast period.