Supply may exceed consumption by an average of 1.75 million barrels a day in the period, compared with an estimate of 1.5 million last month, and the excess could swell if OPEC adds more output, the IEA said. Iran raised production in January following the removal of international sanctions, Iraqi volumes reached a record and Saudi Arabia also ramped up output. The agency trimmed estimates for global oil demand.

Crude oil prices ended 2015 below $40 per barrel (b), the lowest level since early 2009. Spot prices for the international crude oil benchmark Brent averaged $52/b in 2015, 53% below the level in 2014 and 49% below the average price over 2010-14. Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil were also down 53% in 2015 compared with 2014, averaging $49/b for the year.

Non-OPEC crude oil and other liquids production grows by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and then declines by 0.4 million b/d in 2016, which would be the first annual decline in non-OPEC production since 2008.

“Relatively low gas prices, combined with low oil prices, have slowed drilling in the Marcellus (Shale) so production from new wells is only offsetting the decline in old wells,” said EIA lead upstream analyst Dana Van Wagener.

Global liquids production continues to outpace consumption, leading to strong inventory builds throughout the forecast period. Global oil inventory builds in the second quarter of 2015 averaged 2.7 million b/d, rising by 0.8 million b/d compared with the first quarter of the year. The pace of inventory builds is expected to slow in the second half of the year, to roughly 1.8 million b/d. In 2016, inventory builds are expected to slow to an average of 0.9 million b/d.

Global oil demand is set to rise by 1 million or even 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015, according to a range of forecasters.

Projected world petroleum and other liquids supply increases by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015, with most of the growth coming from countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).