“We see 2017-2020 as still having the potential for much higher prices. After 2020, there is a high risk that electric vehicle penetration will change the oil market forever.”

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures traded at $43.65 a barrel at 0301 GMT, down 26 cents in the Globex electronic session. Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 25 cents to $46.34 a barrel.

Executive Directors welcomed the steps the authorities have taken to adjust to the decline in oil prices and weaker growth in trading partners. However, they noted that the difficult external environment could hamper macroeconomic outcomes in the near term. While Azerbaijan’s policy buffers remain substantial, the balance of payments, fiscal position, and banking system would likely remain under pressure as the economy continues to adjust. Accordingly, Directors stressed the need to press ahead with reforms to secure macroeconomic and financial stability and promote a diversified and private sector-led economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $43.72 a barrel at 0145 GMT, up $0.14 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.27 to $46.12 a barrel.

The collapse of oil prices has forced Canadian and global producers to slash costs and curtail investment over the past two years. Even after a rebound from a 12-year low earlier this year, oil futures in New York are still about 60 percent down from their 2014 peak. Prices have been mostly stuck in the $40-$50 range for the past four months.

Global oil demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than initially predicted.

Growth has also been unequal: in major advanced economies, incomes for the top 10 percent increased by 40 percent in the past two decades, while growing only modestly at the bottom.

"Мы при подготовке бюджета используем цену $40 за баррель, потому что мы понимаем, что бюджет, построенный из $40 за баррель, адаптировать к стресс-сценарию $30 за баррель возможно. Если брать более высокие цены, вся экономическая ситуация окажется уязвимой перед возможными шоками, приходящими с внешних рынков"

Среднегодовая цена на нефть увеличена с $30 до $35 за баррель. Среднегодовой курс доллара США сохранен на уровне 360 тенге/$1

Brent crude prices LCOc1 fell 92 cents to $47.40 a barrel by 0910 GMT (05:10 a.m. EDT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 declined by $1.03 to $45.26 a barrel.

The producer cartel revised higher for this year and next oil supply forecasts from non-member countries, implying that demand for its crude will remain far lower than current near record output of more than 33m barrels a day.

U.S. oil production down 61 tbd, gas production doun 302 mcfd.

U.S. Rig Count is down 340 rigs from last year's count of 848, with oil rigs down 238, gas rigs down 104, and miscellaneous rigs up 2. Canadian Rig Count is down 51 rigs from last year's count of 185, with oil rigs up 4, gas rigs down 56, and miscellaneous rigs up 1.

London Brent crude for November delivery was down 58 cents at $49.41 a barrel as of 0647 GMT after rising above $50 for the first time in two weeks and settling up $2.01, or 4.2 percent, on Thursday. NYMEX crude for October delivery was down 51 cents at $47.11.

The decline in earnings was driven largely by the decline in crack spreads (the price difference between crude oil and petroleum products) in the second quarter. In addition to changes in crack spreads, which serve as an indicator of refinery profits, earnings per barrel reflect transportation costs and other operating expenses. Also, refiners use different crude oil blends and produce different yields of refined products, which changes the per barrel earnings among refiners.