IMF - The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices. Growth momentum is expected to strengthen in the next few years with increased investment and private sector credit, improved prospects in trading partners, and a boost to tourism from Expo 2020. Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 3.9 percent in 2019 and 4.2 percent in 2020. The oil sector’s prospects have also improved with higher oil prices and output. Overall real GDP growth is projected at around 3.7 percent for 2019–20.
GULF TIMES - Turkey’s top economic body ruled out seeking support from the International Monetary Fund, in an effort to end market speculation that Ankara is in touch with the Washington-based lender to negotiate a rescue package.
IMF - Output is estimated to have grown by 3.2 percent in 2018, unemployment to have fallen to close to 5 percent, and the current account to have recorded another sizable surplus. Prospects for 2019 are for more of the same––we are projecting real GDP growth of 3.3 percent. However, the downside risks to this outlook have recently risen, owing to a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in global trade and unsettled financial markets.
U.S. BLS - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Job gains occurred in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing.
EXXONMOBIL - Exxon Mobil Corporation announced estimated 2018 earnings of $20.8 billion, or $4.88 per share assuming dilution, compared with $19.7 billion a year earlier. Excluding U.S. tax reform and asset impairments, earnings were $21 billion, compared with $15.3 billion in 2017. Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $40.1 billion, including proceeds associated with asset sales of $4.1 billion. Capital and exploration expenditures were $25.9 billion, including incremental spend to accelerate value capture.
U.S. FRB - Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.
SHELL - Compared with the fourth quarter 2017, CCS earnings attributable to shareholders excluding identified items of $5.7 billion mainly benefited from higher realised oil, gas and LNG prices as well as stronger contributions from crude oil and LNG trading, partly offset by movements in deferred tax positions. Full year earnings of $21.4 billion also reflected higher realised oil, gas and LNG prices, partly offset by movements in deferred tax positions.
SHELL - Royal Dutch Shell plc (the ‘company’) announces the commencement of trading in the third tranche of its share buyback programme previously announced on July 26, 2018. In the third tranche, the company has entered into an irrevocable, non-discretionary arrangement with a broker to enable the purchase of A ordinary shares and/or B ordinary shares for a period up to and including April 29, 2019.
CONOCOPHILLIPS - Full-year 2018 earnings were $6.3 billion, or $5.32 per share, compared with a full-year 2017 net loss of $0.9 billion, or ($0.70) per share. Excluding special items, full-year 2018 adjusted earnings were $5.3 billion, or $4.54 per share, compared with full-year 2017 adjusted earnings of $0.7 billion, or $0.60 per share.
BHGE - “2018 marked BHGE’s first full year as a combined company and it was a year of significant change and progress for us. We moved beyond the initial integration phase into the next chapter for BHGE. In November, our majority shareholder, GE, reduced their ownership from approximately 62.5% to approximately 50.4%, and we reached critical commercial agreements with GE that position our company for the future. The market environment changed significantly as we progressed through the year. ” said Lorenzo Simonelli, BHGE Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.
U.S. DT - Over the first three quarters of 2018, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent, the fastest pace for the first three quarters of a year since 2005. Initial data for the fourth quarter indicate the economy continued to perform well, although slowing global growth and the housing sector could present headwinds. Private forecasters in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators monthly survey now estimate that real GDP growth slowed to 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, and will slow further to 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019.
IMF - Kuwait's growth is expected to strengthen. The mission has assumed an average oil price of US$57 per barrel in 2019–20, increasing to US$60 per barrel over the medium term. As capital project implementation accelerates, non-oil growth is projected to increase to about 3.5 percent in 2020. The recent OPEC decision to cut production is expected to hold oil output to 2 percent growth in 2019, which could rebound to 2.5 percent in 2020 given the spare capacity. Inflation is expected to rise in 2019–20 to about 2.5 percent as the deflationary factors in 2018 unwind.
REUTERS - “There is no doubt - and there is a consensus coming here in various meetings in Davos - that our industry is literally under siege and the future of oil is at stake,” said Mohammed Barkindo, secretary-general of oil producer group OPEC.
REUTERS - China has lent over $50 billion to Venezuela through oil-for-loan agreements over the past decade, securing energy supplies for its fast-growing economy.
IMF - Economic activity in Latin America continues to rise, but at a slower rate than previously anticipated. Overall, the region is expected to advance by 2 percent in 2019 and 2.5 percent in 2020—still well below peer countries in other regions.