A global crude oil deficit will develop before the end of this year, the chairman of Facts Global Energy consultancy Fereidun Fesharaki said Monday.

The May crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed $1.55 on Apr. 20 to $42.63/bbl. The June contract was up $1.71 to $44.18/bbl.

"I think $45 is a bit of a relief for all the oil producers around the world, but this is still far lower than to make the entire shale oil production profitable for the United States."

Brent crude oil was last up 2.1% at $43.82 a barrel, above where it was before talks about a production freeze collapsed over the weekend. Analysts said oil prices drew support on Tuesday from a strike by oil workers in Kuwait, reducing concerns about a global glut of supply.

The Russian camp was locked in negotiations with the Saudis, Qataris and Venezuelans — a core group that had first backed the freeze in February.

Some 18 OPEC and non-OPEC countries, including Russia, had been meant to meet on Sunday morning in the Qatari capital of Doha and rubber-stamp a deal - in the making since February - to freeze output at January levels until October 2016.

“A flat output profile for OPEC (excluding Iran) and Russia would tighten global balances by almost 0.5 million barrels a day in the second half relative to our expectations and push the oil market into a deficit in the third quarter,” the U.S. bank wrote in a note on Wednesday. That would “push prices above $50 near term,” it said.

The contango between futures prices in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the average of 2017 has shrunk from $3.75 per barrel in December to $2.50 at the end of February and just $1.65 in recent days.

North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $38/barrel (b) in March, a $6/b increase from February. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $35/b in 2016 and $41/b in 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.

The world’s biggest energy user increased inbound shipments to 91.1 million metric tons in the first three months of the year, data from the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs showed on Wednesday. That’s equivalent to about 7.34 million barrels a day, 6 percent higher than the previous quarter and 13 percent up from the same period last year. Imports last month fell about 4 percent from February’s record to 7.71 million barrels a day, the third-highest ever.

“The oil price is growing. I think everyone is expecting the successful outcome of our work,” Mr Sechin said. “We will need higher price levels than $45 or even $50 a barrel.”

"Now we're seeing reductions in spending on shorter cycle projects, in other words immediate drilling activity," Watson said. "Rig rates in the US are down almost 80%, we're seeing decline in rig rates around the world and we're starting to see the supply response that everyone has expected. So we're seeing the markets come back into better balance [but] it may take more time."

"The level of $45-50 (per barrel) is acceptable from the point of view of market balance: if prices go higher shale oil production could start to recover."

Oil-producing countries can come to an agreement capping crude production at January levels even if Iran doesn’t join the move to help shore up prices.

Oil at $35 a barrel is neither too high nor too low but just right to make shares of U.S. explorers worth buying, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.