Non-OPEC oil production is declining rapidly while consumption, especially gasoline, continues to grow strongly, particularly in the United States, India and China.

Natural gas futures rose 7.6% to settle at $2.088 a million British thermal unit on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest in more than two months. The market has lost more than 10% this year, as a mild winter limited heating demand. But losses have been pared in recent weeks, as a cool start to spring has buoyed expectations for demand.

South America’s two largest oil producing nations face bigger threats from political turmoil than depressed crude prices, but reforms in their national oil companies (NOC) and energy ministries may be essential for their governments to survive.

Tehran is seeking to make up for lost trade to Europe following the lifting of EU sanctions imposed in 2011 and 2012, which deprived it of a market that accounted for over a third of its exports and left it relying completely on Asian buyers.

Brent crude oil was last up 2.1% at $43.82 a barrel, above where it was before talks about a production freeze collapsed over the weekend. Analysts said oil prices drew support on Tuesday from a strike by oil workers in Kuwait, reducing concerns about a global glut of supply.

Общий объем недоинвестирования в отрасль за 2 года приближается к $400 млрд – это те факторы, которые оказывают влияние на рынок. При этом продолжается рост спроса на нефть – примерно на 1,2 млн баррелей в сутки, по оценкам экспертов. Цена около $40 за баррель сегодня отражает реальную рыночную картину, является приемлемой и для производителей, и для потребителей нефти в условиях существующего профицита предложения.

The Russian camp was locked in negotiations with the Saudis, Qataris and Venezuelans — a core group that had first backed the freeze in February.

Thousands of workers in six oil and petrochemical companies went on strike Sunday to protest proposed government cutbacks.

Now the two sides, buyer and seller, will have to make do without the safety-net the contracts offered: high gas demand translates into high gas prices for the customers, while indexation to low oil prices would have deprived Gazprom of the upside of a temporary supply glitch or a prolonged cold winter.

Some 18 OPEC and non-OPEC countries, including Russia, had been meant to meet on Sunday morning in the Qatari capital of Doha and rubber-stamp a deal - in the making since February - to freeze output at January levels until October 2016.

Россия готова к тому, чтобы начинать формировать информационную позицию в отношении объемов добычи, перспектив добычи, проблем, которые формируются, и давать свои оценки.

“A flat output profile for OPEC (excluding Iran) and Russia would tighten global balances by almost 0.5 million barrels a day in the second half relative to our expectations and push the oil market into a deficit in the third quarter,” the U.S. bank wrote in a note on Wednesday. That would “push prices above $50 near term,” it said.

The contango between futures prices in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the average of 2017 has shrunk from $3.75 per barrel in December to $2.50 at the end of February and just $1.65 in recent days.

North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $38/barrel (b) in March, a $6/b increase from February. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $35/b in 2016 and $41/b in 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.

“The oil price is growing. I think everyone is expecting the successful outcome of our work,” Mr Sechin said. “We will need higher price levels than $45 or even $50 a barrel.”