New data suggests that in 2Q17 global stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d and preliminary data for July, particularly in the United States where stocks fell by 790 kb/d, is supportive. Even so, we must not forget that they are falling from a very great height in volume terms. At the end of 2Q17, OECD commercial stocks, which are the component of the global total for which we have the most visibility, stood at 3 021 million barrels, still more than 219 mb above the five-year average although they have now fallen below 2016 levels. As an exercise, if OECD stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d until the end of 1Q18 when the current output agreements expire they would still be about 60 mb above the five-year average.

OPEC said world oil demand in 2018 will grow 1.28 million b/d from 2017 levels, meaning that total oil consumption is expected to hit a new record high of 97.8 million b/d in 2018.

EIA continues to expect US production to rise over the next two years and cross the 10 million b/d threshold in November 2018. It sees output averaging 9.35 million b/d in 2017, up 20,000 b/d from last month's outlook, and 9.91 million b/d in 2018, up 10,000 b/d from last month.

Crude oil production from the seven major U.S. onshore producing regions is forecast to increase 117,000 b/d month-over-month in September to 6.149 million b/d.

Total crude oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased 173,000 b/d month-over-month in July to average 32.87 million b/d.

Libya's oil production is 1.069 million b/d, and the country hopes to grow its output to as much as 1.25 million b/d this year, a source close to production said Monday.

With prices still languishing below the $55-$60/b that some ministers have said they are targeting, some market watchers say OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have no choice but to deepen cuts to make up for output gains from exempt Nigeria and Libya, as well as sliding compliance from other members.

EIA forecasts that total U.S. crude oil production will average 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017, up 0.5 million b/d from 2016. In 2018, crude oil production is expected to reach an average of 9.9 million b/d, which would surpass the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.

Crude oil production from the seven major US onshore regions is projected to rise 113,000 b/d month-over-month in August to 5.585 million b/d.

While US demand for gas is rising because of higher industrial consumption, more than half of the production increase will be used for LNG for export. By 2022, IEA estimates that the US will be on course to challenge Australia and Qatar for global leadership among LNG exporters.