The EIA said in a statement that it expects oil production growth to be led by countries outside of OPEC+. Production in South America has been the leading source of growth as new offshore vessels have started up ahead of schedule in Brazil and Guyana this year, the outlook said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, have been unwinding previously agreed oil production cuts to regain market share from rivals such as U.S. shale producers.

The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.

The Committee reiterated the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation, and requested countries that did not achieve full conformity to submit updated compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by 18 August 2025.

In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 411 thousand barrels per day in July 2025 from June 2025 required production level.

U.S. crude oil output rose to 13.49 million barrels per day in March, up from 13.16 million bpd in February and the prior all-time high of 13.45 million bpd in October 2024.

Its target scenario sees output of 540 million tons at the end of this decade and also by midcentury, a document published Monday showed. That’s equivalent to about 10.84 million barrels a day and is only marginally above volumes in 2023, the baseline for the paper. Shipments abroad are also expected to hold steady.

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for 1Q25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs.

The Committee valued the additional voluntary production adjustments made by the 8 OPEC plus countries which were announced in April and November 2023 in supporting market stability.

Furthermore, the eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to full conformity with the additional voluntary production adjustments as agreed under the 53rd JMMC meeting on April 3, 2024. T