The economy will shrink 1.5 percent this year, Alfa Bank’s Natalia Orlova said in a report on Monday, cutting her previous forecast for an expansion of 0.3 percent.
Therefore, oil prices will rise once more people study the long-term dynamics of oil markets instead of trading on and exploiting the short term news. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, WTI for delivery in February 2017 closed at US$37.08 a barrel on January 19, 23% higher than the market closing price for the day.
Even if E&P clients are able to negotiate more favorable terms for their debt, the industry’s overextended balance sheets will put a cap on activity — even if oil prices rise. On the producer side, companies will most likely de-lever before they drill should some extra cash come in the door. For OFS, building all the new equipment such as walking rigs and big frac spreads to meet strong client demand has some players in this sector significantly over-levered.
While Iran enjoys the world's fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves and the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, its production and export potential has remained largely unutilized as a result of the nuclear related sanctions. The sanctions have had a major impact on Iran's energy industry and have caused a number of cancellations or delays in its oil and gas upstream projects.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, two of the major crude oil benchmarks, account for about 69% of the weighting in the S&P GSCI Energy index. As a result, the energy index tends to follow major price movements in the crude oil market. With sustained, high crude oil production from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United States, and Russia, global liquid fuel inventories rose significantly in 2015, resulting in crude oil prices falling to 11-year lows in December.
Gazprom’s “export policy has always been balanced and adaptive,” says spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov. He argues that European customers have become more interested, not less, in Russian gas, given Europe’s own decline in production.
Сейчас очень много неопределенности по цене. Поэтому нет смысла оперативно реагировать на текущую конъюнктуру, надо понимать, насколько долго эта цена будет держаться. Я считаю, что средние по году $50 за баррель - это цена, которая может отражать баланс спроса и предложения. Она может быть чуть ниже и чуть выше, условно говоря, колебания могут быть между $40-50 и между $50-60.
Rhetoric and geopolitical ambitions can be self-defeating in that respect, as the natural gas sector tends to be dominated by grandiose infrastructure projects and ambitious themes that may not come to fruition.
In theory, the European Union is pursuing a single energy market, based on the needs of all 28 EU nations. It is also meant to be united against Russia as it seeks to defend the interests of Ukraine following Moscow's seizure of Crimea in March last year.
Nord Stream-2 is still supposed to meet a hypothetical rise of EU gas demand, and also to deal with the abandonment of other projects, like the Nabucco project, which was largely abandoned in 2012, the South Stream project abandoned in December 2014, as well as the ill-fated Turkish Stream project, held hostage in the Russian-Turkish war of words that has followed the shooting down of a Russian warplane by the Turkish Airforce.
The Nord Stream II pipeline would stretch 1,200 kilometers across the Baltic Sea, from Vyborg on the Russian coast to Griefswald, Germany. Once completed, it would have the capacity to transport 27.5 billion cubic meters of gas directly to Germany, circumventing Ukraine and the Central and Eastern European states. Russia’s Gazprom would own 50% of the project, and France’s Engie, Austria’s OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, and Germany’s BASF and E.ON each would own a 10% share.
The additional volumes are roughly what Gazprom has been piping to the EU through Ukraine, raising concerns that the new route would allow Russia to strip Kiev of much of its remaining economic leverage and an important source of income.
The product of Turkey’s far-sighted, strategic energy partnership with Azerbaijan, TANAP will initially transport 16 bcm annually from the Shah Deniz field’s second phase of development via the expanded South Caucasus Pipeline (SCPX) extending across Azerbaijan and Georgia to the Turkish border.
Any change in U.S. oil policy will have “zero” impact on the market because the country remains an importer, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said Tuesday.
Qatar's LNG is expensive compared to Russian gas (although Russian gas is also not cheap). New LNG terminals will not be easy to build in the short term; it is a very expensive process. It also possible to increase the efficiency of processing and transmission of gas through the introduction of modern technology, however, it will not completely solve the problem.