For many years, Russia has advocated that the frequent gas interruptions are the fault of transit states such as Ukraine, whom the Kremlin sees as unreliable. As a result, Gazprom rolled out several pipeline projects that would bypass Ukraine altogether and provide a direct route to its customer base in Europe.

Over the past decade, domestic refinery output of petroleum products has grown significantly while consumption has declined, resulting in a major increase in product exports. Petroleum product exports averaged 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first four months of the year, an increase of 0.5 million b/d over exports the same time last year. Product imports are also higher than last year, but to a lesser extent, leading to an increase in net petroleum product exports.

Running from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, Nord Stream I is an export gas pipeline with an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. Nord Stream AG is the project operator (Gazprom holds 51 per cent, Wintershall and E.ON – 15.5 per cent and ENGIE – 9 per cent).

The economic battle that is currently taking shape will have global ramifications for many years to come. Energy is certainly playing a major role in this economic battle, with Moscow seeking to counteract the desire of Washington and Brussels to divide Russia from Europe. The Russian government unquestionably has massive power owing to the amount of energy exportation that it is involved in, and a lack of cooperation in this regard would certainly be damaging to numerous Western companies and countries alike.

Europe could take advantage of global LNG dynamics, but much of the evolution of the European LNG market depends on Gazprom’s decisions in the short to medium term,

Petroleum product exports averaged 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first four months of the year, the latest monthly data available. This was an increase of 0.5 million b/d over the same time last year.

Pipelines do not determine flows: infrastructure is necessary, but flows depend on market realities. Nord Stream, for instance, expanded Russia’s export capacity by a third in 2012, yet Russia’s exports are still far below their pre-crisis levels. Exports from Algeria have suffered the same fate: in 2011, Algeria inaugurated a new pipeline to Spain, but Algeria’s pipeline exports to Europe were 35 percent lower in 2014 than in 2010. By contrast, Norway is not building new pipelines but its exports are steady and its market share is growing (since demand, the denominator, is falling).

Turkey remains reluctant to enter the EU Energy Community, as it would decrease its leeway on its energy policies. European laws can suit some other neighbours, but Turkey is a completely different case. Its importance for Europe, in the energy sector or in relation to migration issues, should not be underestimated.

Ukraine expects to store enough natural gas for next winter despite cutting off imports from Russia and Russian flows crossing the country destined for Europe will not be disrupted, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn said on Thursday.

The quest for European energy security this week suffered a pair of setbacks in Britain and Germany, two countries with large reserves of shale oil and gas.