Russia has been developing new pipeline projects such as South Stream, Turk Stream and Nord Stream 2. If one of them were to be realized then transit risk stemming from Ukraine would be severely minimized and Moscow would have important strategic leverage.
During the first quarter of 2016, the decline in global activity and the rate of activity disruption reached unprecedented levels as the industry displayed clear signs of operating in a full-scale cash crisis. Budgeted E&P spend fell again and substantially affected our operating results. This environment is expected to continue deteriorating over the coming quarter given the magnitude and erratic nature of the disruptions in activity.
Net income (loss) from continuing operations for the quarter was a loss of $396.6 million, or ($1.41) per diluted share, compared to a loss of $161.1 million, or ($0.57) per diluted share, last quarter.
BP’s first-quarter replacement cost (RC) loss was $485 million, compared with a profit of $2,103 million a year ago. After adjusting for a net charge for non-operating items of $778 million and net unfavourable fair value accounting effects of $239 million (both on a post-tax basis), underlying RC profit for the first quarter was $532 million, compared with $2,577 million for the same period in 2015. Cumulative restructuring charges from the beginning of the fourth quarter 2014 totalled $1.9 billion by the end of the first quarter 2016.
Смысл был договариваться в феврале, есть он и в апреле. Но, действительно, чем больше времени проходит, тем более значимыми становятся фундаментальные рыночные факторы. За счет снижения инвестиций в отрасль в результате низких цен предложение будет снижаться. Мы видим, что только за последние два года мейджоры существенно подсократили свои инвестиционные программы, общее недофинансирование отрасли составляет около $400 млрд. Наблюдается падение добычи сланцевой нефти в США уже больше чем на 500 тыс. баррелей с пиковых величин — сейчас они добывают меньше 9 млн баррелей в сутки. Это все будет влиять на то, что при росте спроса предложение будет снижаться, рынок все равно выровняется.
The May crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed $1.55 on Apr. 20 to $42.63/bbl. The June contract was up $1.71 to $44.18/bbl.
"I think $45 is a bit of a relief for all the oil producers around the world, but this is still far lower than to make the entire shale oil production profitable for the United States."
The impact of weaker prices is being compounded by lower profits from refining, a business that has been bailing out oil majors over the past couple of years. Global refining margins dropped to $10.50 a barrel in the first quarter, 31 percent lower than a year earlier and 20 percent lower than the preceding quarter.
U.S. Rig Count is down 9 rigs from last week to 431, with oil rigs down 8 to 343, and gas rigs down 1 to 88. Canadian Rig Count remains unchanged at 40, with oil rigs up 2 to 12, and gas rigs down 3 to 27.
The sharp decline in oil prices since the fourth quarter of 2014 has had a significant effect on drilling in the United States. The number of active onshore drilling rigs in the Lower 48 states fell 78% (from 1,876 to 412) between the weeks ending on October 31, 2014, and April 15, 2016, according to data from BakerHughes. The decline in active rigs and well completions is projected to result in month-over-month onshore oil production declines of 120,000 b/d through September 2016.
A high debt-to-equity ratio can present challenges in the face of falling revenue, which most U.S. oil producers experienced in 2015 because of lower oil prices. A company agrees to the terms of a bank loan or bond issuance to fund projects with the expectation that its activities will generate sufficient revenue to service the debt and eventually repay it. Debt on the balance sheet implies future cash outflows. The need to service large amounts of debt as revenues declined made companies with high debt-to-equity ratios more vulnerable to losses than companies with less leverage in their capital structures.
During this year’s first 3 months, 39 announced oil and gas deals took place accounting for a total $28 billion vs. 39 deals worth $34.4 billion in first-quarter 2015. Total deal value was down 19%.
The steep decline in oil prices over 2015 and the “new reality” of low prices for a longer period of time have led to the deferral of many high-cost projects. Based on research of public data and news releases, Deloitte Marketpoint estimates that non-OPEC cancellations and postponements include 1.3 million b/d of production over the next 5 years.
Brent crude oil was last up 2.1% at $43.82 a barrel, above where it was before talks about a production freeze collapsed over the weekend. Analysts said oil prices drew support on Tuesday from a strike by oil workers in Kuwait, reducing concerns about a global glut of supply.
“The one hope is that earnings bounce back and company cash flows [improve],” Mr Caprio added. “If that doesn’t happen, [companies] will have debt to pay off and it is unclear how they’ll pay it.”