Saudi Arabia has started shipping crude to traditional Russian markets like Poland and Sweden, but supplies to Europe from the world’s largest exporter won’t increase by enough to reduce prices. In contrast, a surge in Iranian exports after the lifting of sanctions could erode the value of Russian shipments to the region as soon as next year.

The process of adjustment in the oil market is rarely a smooth one, but, in central scenario, the market rebalances at $80/bbl in 2020, with further increases in price thereafter.

EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $54/b in 2015 and $56/b in 2016. The 2015 forecast price is unchanged from last month's STEO, and the 2016 forecast price is $2/b lower. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent price in 2015 and $5/b lower in 2016. The current values of futures and options contracts for February 2016 delivery (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report) suggest the market expects WTI prices to range from $35/b to $66/b (at the 95% confidence interval) in February 2016.

Crude oil production in December from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 118,000 b/d to 4.95 million b/d.

“Russia plays a central role in the question of how we Europeans can secure our energy supply,” Schroeder, whose friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has been controversial in Germany, said at the Nov. 9 event. “Norway and Russia are the most secure and reliable energy partners for Europe.”

OPEC’s share of the global oil market will expand from 2020 as prices recover to $80 and supply outside the group stagnates due to spending cuts, according to the International Energy Agency.

Long-term oil market fundamentals remain robust but prolonged low prices could threaten security of supply and pave the way for a price spike, Saudi Arabia's vice oil minister said

The oil and gas industry has cut $200 billion from investments this year as low prices discourage new projects, leading to cuts in crude supplies equal to half the daily output of Saudi Arabia, according to the kingdom’s Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman.

U.S. Rig Count is down 4 rigs from last week to 771, with oil rigs down 6 to 572, and gas rigs up 2 to 199. U.S. Rig Count is down 1,154 rigs from last year at 1,925, with oil rigs down 996, gas rigs down 157, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 rig. The U.S. Offshore rig count is 32, down 1 rig from last week, and down 21 rigs year over year.

Oil today stands at around $50 a barrel, having more than halved since June 2014 after global supplies dramatically rose due in large part to the U.S. shale oil boom but also due to the unlocking of huge offshore reserves in Brazil, Africa and Asia.

The Saudi-Russian battle for Europe's crude oil buyers intensified this week as Swedish refiner Preem bought its first cargo of Saudi Arabian crude oil in around two decades, trading sources said.

The worldwide rig count for October 2015 was 2,086, down 85 from the 2,171 counted in September 2015, and down 1,571 from the 3,657 counted in October 2014.

“The efficiency of Japanese investments (alternative to those in Russia) is mostly very low. From what we know in the last 3 yeast Japanese firms faced almost 600 bln yen of write downs (around 6 bln USD) because of bad investments in projects associated with hard-to-recover hydrocarbons in US and Canada, and also because of unsuccessful projects in the North Sea. And this had to be done in a period of high oil prices! De-facto IRR for international upstream projects of INPEX by the end of 2014 was 3.1% (Wood Macikenzie estimates). This is around 4 times less than a standard revenue ratio”.

Kazakhstan's vast Kashagan oil field, the world's biggest oil find in decades, is expected to restart production at the end of 2016, Exxon Mobil Production Vice President John Chaplin said.

Nigeria's government has approved the payment of 413 billion naira ($2.1 billion) to oil marketers as outstanding payment for fuel subsidy claims, the state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said.