IMF - The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices. Growth momentum is expected to strengthen in the next few years with increased investment and private sector credit, improved prospects in trading partners, and a boost to tourism from Expo 2020. Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 3.9 percent in 2019 and 4.2 percent in 2020. The oil sector’s prospects have also improved with higher oil prices and output. Overall real GDP growth is projected at around 3.7 percent for 2019–20.
IMF - Output is estimated to have grown by 3.2 percent in 2018, unemployment to have fallen to close to 5 percent, and the current account to have recorded another sizable surplus. Prospects for 2019 are for more of the same––we are projecting real GDP growth of 3.3 percent. However, the downside risks to this outlook have recently risen, owing to a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in global trade and unsettled financial markets.
U.S. BLS - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Job gains occurred in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing.
WINDPOWER - Canada’s wind energy industry further expanded its installed capacity in 2018, while solidifying its status as the lowest-cost source of new electricity generation. Newly commissioned projects brought total national wind energy capacity to close to 13,000 MW, according to new year-end findings from the Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA).
EXXONMOBIL - Exxon Mobil Corporation announced estimated 2018 earnings of $20.8 billion, or $4.88 per share assuming dilution, compared with $19.7 billion a year earlier. Excluding U.S. tax reform and asset impairments, earnings were $21 billion, compared with $15.3 billion in 2017. Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $40.1 billion, including proceeds associated with asset sales of $4.1 billion. Capital and exploration expenditures were $25.9 billion, including incremental spend to accelerate value capture.
BHGE - U.S. Rig Count is down 14 rigs from last week to 1,045 rigs, with oil rigs down 15 to 847 and gas rigs up 1 to 198. Canada Rig Count is up 11 rigs from last week to 243, with oil rigs up 13 to 159 and gas rigs down 2 to 84.
REUTERS - International Brent crude oil futures were at $61.06 per barrel at 0755 GMT, 22 cents, or 0.4 percent, above their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $53.86 per barrel, up 7 cents from their last settlement.
PLATTS- Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday that he does not currently see a need to take any extra measures or call for an extra meeting by the OPEC/non-OPEC group over the crisis in Venezuela. "We haven't discussed the situation with [Saudi energy] minister Falih, or other ministers," Novak told reporters. "The markets are currently calm ... and the volatility is insignificant. So there is no need for the extra meeting of OPEC+, at least the Russian side thinks so."
PLATTS- US refiners cannot rely on Mexico to replace Venezuelan heavy oil imports as the country is battling to reverse its declining production and Pemex's oil is sold under contractual basis, analysts and others say.
U.S. EIA - U.S. crude oil production rose to a new high of 11.9 million barrels per day in November, up 345,000 bpd from the previous month,
OGJ - US crude oil inventories for the week ended Jan. 25, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 900,000 bbl from the previous week, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed.
EIA - In November 2018, for the 19th consecutive month, dry natural gas production increased year to year for the month. The preliminary level for dry natural gas production in November 2018 was 2,646 billion cubic feet (Bcf), or 88.2 Bcf/d. This level was 9.2 Bcf/d (11.6%) higher than the November 2017 level of 79.0 Bcf/d. The average daily rate of dry natural gas production for November was the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly dry natural gas production in 1973.
BLOOMBERG - Saudi Arabia expects to reduce oil output once again in February and pump for six months at levels “well below” the production limit it accepted under OPEC’s oil-cuts accord, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said.
PLATTS - China consumed 280.30 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2018, up 18.1% year on year, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its website late Thursday. The natural gas consumption growth in 2018 outpaced the growth rate of 15.3% in 2017 and 6.6% in 2016, respectively, according to the NDRC's historical data, implying China's increasing demand for natural gas.
U.S. FRB - Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.